News Flash:

📌Short Term Holder (STH): Let's look at the Realized Price (RP) of STH, reflecting the Realized Cap proportion. It covers cohorts from 0d to 6m, accounting for 26.52% of the total cap. The less than a week cohort accounts for a total of 3.27% and is excluded from the data because there is no significant difference from spot prices.

🟥1w~1m

RP: $27.18k / Dominance: 4.42%

🟧1m~3m

RP: $27.83k / Dominance: 7.54%

🟨3m~6m

RP: $28.31k / Dominance: 11.29%

📰The proportion of all three cohorts is 23.25%, and the weighted average value reflecting this is $27.94k.

7/30 $27.89k → 8/30 $28.18k → 10/17 $27.94k, located just below the current price of $28.24k.

🎯Key Points

☑️$28k, from resistance to support?

Since mid-August, the $28.2k level has acted as strong support, and spot prices have also been below that level. However, yesterday's rally (10/16) resulted in a resistance breakout. Now, we can expect an SR flip. Given that the cost basis of STH: $27.9k derived from today's analysis is very close to existing resistance, it appears that a transition from Resistance → Support is occurring.

☑️Strong support? Well...

While this is the basis of STH fees, it may be difficult to expect a strong support role as their influence has declined recently.

At the time of analysis at the end of August, the Realized Cap dominance of the 0d~6m age band was 29.7% but has now decreased significantly to 26.3%. Of course, the cap may have reduced as spot prices have declined since then, but considering that the dominance of the 1m~3m🟧 cohort has declined sharply in the last 6 weeks, market apathy appears to have worsened. The 3m-6m cohort 🟨 has been increasing for 4 months, indicating that the number of cases for switching from STH to LTH is increasing.