Today is October 17, 2023, and the current price of Bitcoin is $28,460! There are still 190 days until the fourth Bitcoin halving! We are now in the final stage of the bear market, the border between the bear market and the bull market!
Next, I will share some of my personal experiences in the cryptocurrency world, as well as a detailed account of the overall environment and the current stage we are in. Of course, I will also conduct a detailed analysis of the upcoming bull market and the reasons that may trigger a super bull market!
In December 2019, I came to the cryptocurrency circle. A certain project and a certain platform brought me into the cryptocurrency circle. I won’t tell you which project or platform it was because it has already closed down!
I was idle that day, so I browsed around various groups to see what was new. As a result, I saw someone sent a link in the group, so I clicked on it and found that it was a project. Then I got into it. I could earn points in this project, and the points could be exchanged for coins. This coin was listed on the exchange and could be cashed! Through this project, I also came to the cryptocurrency circle, but this project and the exchange no longer exist!
When I first entered the cryptocurrency circle, I knew nothing. When I opened the exchange, I saw all kinds of coins. I watched them rise and fall every day. I was very curious and felt that this was an opportunity to make money. In order to fully understand this industry, I began to continuously learn relevant knowledge!
It was at that time that Bitcoin really appeared in front of me and I came into contact with Bitcoin in a real sense! Before that, I had only heard of Bitcoin in the news and only heard the name, but knew nothing about its price and development history!
When I first entered the circle, I was a complete newbie. At that time, the price of Bitcoin was only a few thousand dollars! Although it was very cheap, I didn’t dare to touch it because I didn’t know anything. Naturally, I missed the big bull market after the 2020 halving!
On May 12, 2020, Bitcoin was halved for the third time, and in September of the same year, the market began to accelerate. One afternoon, it was reported online that Tesla began to accept Bitcoin payments, and then Bitcoin soared by more than 10%. It was this news that started a new round of Bitcoin explosion, which soared all the way until it broke through the $60,000 mark!
On March 12, 2021, everyone in the cryptocurrency circle knows about this special day, 312. Every time 312 is mentioned, it is shocking and horrible, and the cryptocurrency circle is all red! Then on May 19, it was another special day. Bitcoin began to plummet from around $59,000, and it was a mess again! In July, the market rebounded and began to soar again, from $28,800 back to $60,000, and the highest rose to $69,040.1, which is the highest point of this round of bull market!
In this round of bull market, there are of course many good news. To sum up, they include: the Federal Reserve's massive money printing, Tesla's acceptance of Bitcoin payments, Musk's purchase of Bitcoin, the approval of Bitcoin futures ETF, and the listing of Coinbase, the largest exchange in the United States, etc.!
In November 2021, this round of bull market ended, and a long bear market began. Bitcoin started to fall from its highest point of US$69,040.1 and continued to fall!
When I fully understood this industry, from a new investor to an old investor, and had a brand new understanding of this industry, the market had already entered a bear market! I missed this bull market perfectly!
In this long bear market, the market is unpredictable, ups and downs, and there is a big negative news or black swan from time to time, such as the collapse of LUNA, the liquidation of Three Arrows Capital, the liquidation of Meitu, the decoupling of stETH, the Fed’s interest rate hike, the closure of FTX exchange, the SEC suing Bianace and Coinbase, etc. There are really too many!
The current market is in the final stage of the bear market. The most difficult time has passed. There is no particularly big negative news or black swan. What we have to do now is to make a layout, a bear market layout, so that we can have chips in the bull market!
A few days ago, I watched many live broadcasts of so-called big guys or big Vs. While analyzing the market, they also led everyone to place orders, saying that the market is going to fall, and to open a short position at such and such a place, and to take profit and stop loss at such and such a place. They acted like gods, able to predict the future. Even at this stage, they still want to short. I really don’t know who gave them the courage!
There was a host who was still making orders on the spot in the live broadcast room. I remember that night, he took the lead in shorting Ethereum. He opened a short order for Ethereum at $1,552. After opening the order, he thought he had a sure win and kept bragging about analyzing the market!
As a result, Ethereum rose to 1554 US dollars. He got nervous after only two points. Then it rose to 1558 US dollars. He stopped bragging and quickly looked at the K-line without saying anything. Then it rose to 1560 US dollars. He stopped looking at the orders and became serious. He watched the K-line silently. Finally, Ethereum had a small rally and a small positive line rose out of nowhere. Finally, he stopped the loss. He lost money on the live broadcast and his face was gone!
In 2021 and 2022, I give you two years to empty. Isn't it enough? Even if it continues to fall, there is not much room. It has fallen for more than two years and it has fallen almost enough. In the final stage of the bear market, the market may reverse at any time! So even if it is going to fall, don't short it, buy on dips, and focus on longs!
Why is it better not to short sell in the final stage of a bear market, and to go long? Because there are positive factors, and the future is promising! These positive factors may be the engine of the next bull market! Let’s take a look at the positive factors and analyze them in detail!
1. SEC’s two defeats
Because it suspected that XRP was a security, the US SEC sued Ripple and took Ripple to court. In the end, Ripple won the lawsuit that XRP was not a security, and the SEC lost! Grayscale applied to the SEC many times to convert GBTC into a spot Bitcoin ETF, but was rejected many times, so Grayscale sued the SEC, and finally Grayscale won. The SEC did not appeal the ruling that Grayscale won the case, and the SEC lost again! The SEC failed twice, which is good for the currency circle and paves the way for the passage of the Bitcoin spot ETF!
2. The end of the interest rate hike cycle
In the past two years, the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates continuously, and inflation has also slowed down. Now it is the end of the interest rate hike cycle. Although the market predicts that there will be one last interest rate hike, it doesn’t matter whether there is one last time, and the impact is not great! According to the news a few days ago, the interest rate hike cycle is over. Next, it will maintain high interest rates for a long time, and then start to cut interest rates next year! The interest rate cut and the release of money are greatly beneficial to the currency circle!
3. Bitcoin halving
The fourth halving of Bitcoin will take place in April next year. There are still 190 days left before the halving. At that time, the Bitcoin block reward will be halved. After the halving, the selling pressure on Bitcoin will be reduced, and the price will naturally rise!
4. The US presidential election
This is a very important thing. The presidential election needs to be held in a relaxed environment, and this relaxed environment is also beneficial to the cryptocurrency circle. With the influx of funds, it is difficult for the currency price not to rise!
5. Development of Bitcoin Inscription Ecosystem
Ethereum has its own ecosystem, and of course Bitcoin does too. The BRC20 track is a new thing. It was born in a bear market and will inevitably explode in a bull market, which is conducive to the prosperity and development of the Bitcoin ecosystem!
6. Approval of Bitcoin Spot ETF
At present, many large institutions have applied to the SEC for Bitcoin spot ETFs. Although the SEC has postponed the application many times, they have not given up the application, but continued to submit the application after modification! At present, the SEC will make a decision by January next year at the latest, whether to approve or reject it, and it cannot be postponed any further! The market predicts that it will be approved with a high probability, it is just a matter of time! Last night, it was reported that the SEC approved the BlackRock spot ETF. At that time, Bitcoin soared and broke through the $30,000 mark. It can be seen how beneficial the Bitcoin spot ETF is!
Of course, in addition to the above 6 positive factors, there are other factors that I won’t say much about. These positive factors are the catalyst or engine of the 2024-2025 bull market! Therefore, I am optimistic about the next market. I am bearish but not short. I am mainly long. I will buy on dips and accumulate more chips. Only in this way can I get results in the bull market!
The above content, the first part is about my experience in the circle, the middle part is about what I saw and heard during the long bear market, and the last part is about my analysis of the overall environment and the possible benefits of the next bull market! The full text is more than 7,600 words long, and it took me several hours to type it out word by word. It is my original article!
Finally, I wish you all good luck in the bear market and good fortune in the bull market! The above content is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice! Investment is risky, so be cautious when entering the market!
