JPMorgan Chase & Co. was among the Wall Street banks that correctly predicted the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 50 basis points this week, and the firm said another big rate cut depended on a weakening U.S. labor market.

Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., is sticking with his bet that the Fed will cut rates by another 50 basis points in November, but he said whether his view will take effect will depend on the outcome of the upcoming jobs report. He has been calling for a 50 basis point rate cut at this week's FOMC meeting since Aug. 2, even after one of his peers abandoned a similar bet.

JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s interest rate strategists were also cautious, expecting Treasuries to remain range-bound until the September jobs report provides direction. The bank removed its recommendation to bet on a widening spread between three-year and 30-year Treasury yields, but sees an opportunity to restart a yield curve steepening trade before the next jobs report.

JPMorgan takes profits on steepening U.S. yield curve trade

"We continue to expect a faster pace of rate normalization than the median projection of the dot plot," Feroli wrote in a note to clients after the Fed's rate decision. "We expect the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points at its next meeting in early November, contingent on further weakness in the two employment reports between now and then. Conversely, softer employment data would set the stage for a Goldilocks scenario in which the FOMC cuts rates by 25 basis points per meeting for the remainder of the year."

Citigroup economists had previously abandoned their forecast for a 50 basis point rate cut at this week's Fed meeting, and the bond market was evenly split. But Feroli has consistently said the Fed is behind the curve in starting to cut rates and will take an outsized move.

JPMorgan's triumph comes as other Wall Street banks have begun overhauling their forecasts.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists led by Jan Hatzius now expect a longer streak of 25 basis point rate cuts from the Fed, from November to June 2025. However, they also wrote that choosing between a 25 basis point or 50 basis point cut in November is "a tough call," adding that the deciding factor will be the next two jobs reports.

U.S. Treasury yields edged lower on Thursday, with shorter-dated bonds leading the decline, as traders bet the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by an additional 70 basis points this year.

“Treasuries are likely to become more range-bound in the coming weeks,” JPMorgan strategists led by Jay Barry wrote. “Money markets are unlikely to price in a faster pace of rate cuts or lower terminal rates until we see the September jobs report.”

The article is forwarded from: Jinshi Data