The focus of today's market is undoubtedly the Fed's interest rate cut!
According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 37%, while the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is as high as 63%.
The suspense in the market is - will it be a 25 basis point cut or a 50 basis point cut?
But the rate cut itself is a foregone conclusion, and accidents are unlikely to happen.
At present, everyone is looking forward to a 50 basis point rate cut, but no matter what the result is, the key is to prepare strategies for these two possibilities.
If the rate cut is 25 basis points, the market is likely to have digested this expectation, and may rise slightly first, and then fluctuate and fall.
If it is 50 basis points, the market may usher in a strong rebound, but it is still difficult to see an increase of more than 12%.
From a historical perspective, in the past four decades, the Fed has only cut interest rates by 50 basis points twice for the first time, namely the Internet bubble in 2001 and the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007.
Most of the others started from 25 basis points. I think tonight's meeting is likely to continue this tradition, and the first rate cut is more symbolic - it means that the Fed has officially entered a rate cut cycle!