September 18th will be an important turning point date, so pay special attention to it! If the Fed officially announces a rate cut, 2.5 basis points will cause BTC and US stocks to plummet directly; 5 basis points will cause a rise and then a fall.

Currently, the BTC price is at 0.618 of the Fibonacci descending channel. With the expected interest rate cut, the price is likely to continue to rise to 0.786, or around 640. The higher the price rises, the more cautious you should be. Short-selling and selling funds are waiting to hunt down the bulls.

The closer we get to a rate cut, the more fragile the market becomes. The best approach is to reduce open positions and preserve your principal.

Many people have a misunderstanding that the more interest rate cuts are made, the better, and that any cut is a positive. In fact, this is not the case. The reason why interest rate cuts drive the market up is that there is new capital inflow, but the essence of interest rate cuts is economic recession, that is, interest rate cuts are a way to achieve a soft landing of an economic recession.

Cutting interest rates too much would mean that the economic recession is uncontrollable and would cause market panic. Therefore, a 25 basis point rate cut is within market expectations and will not have too much impact.

However, a 50 basis point rate cut would be beyond market expectations and would cause panic selling, as seen in the fall this morning. If the Fed explains why it cut rates by 50 basis points later and successfully recharges market confidence, the market will not panic but will continue to surge.

After talking about the macro, we have to talk about the market. It is irrational to talk about the market only by taking one of them. The market is the same as always. If it rises too much, it will fall. If it falls too much, it will rise. It rose for so many consecutive days last week. It is not too much to fall for only one day this week. Now, let's talk about the most likely scenarios at present.

The adjustment since 73777 should be regarded as WXYXZ first. Now it may be within the Z wave or not, so we will discuss them separately.

Assuming that it is still in wave Z, the most likely wave Z is a triangle, because wave X and wave XX have retraced 70% of wave W and wave Y respectively, which means that the platform type WXYXZ is more likely. Of course, the sawtooth type WXYXZ cannot be ruled out, because wave Z is already greater than wave XX, so wave Z can also be any adjustment wave except the platform type, but we do not give priority to the low-probability plan. After the adjustment of wave Z, it can be a new rise or a rebound against WXYXZ.

Assuming that the Z wave has ended at 49,000, since the rise is not a driving force, the rise since 49,000 is regarded as an adjustment to the fall of 73,777-49,000. That is, WXYXZ is the A wave, and the rise since 49,000 is the rebound of the B wave, and the rebound will fall to the same level of the C wave. Since the rise since 52,550 is not a driving force, 49,000-65,000 can only be regarded as the W wave. And because the X wave has retraced 70% of the W wave, there are two options: the joint type and the zigzag type. The first is the zigzag shape, which is still in the A-XX wave. It is negated by falling below 55,545, and the rise must exceed 66,900.

The second option is a combined one. The combined Y wave can be a triangle. Currently, it is in the Y-B wave. After the adjustment, it will start a decline at the same level of 73777-49000.

From the wave pattern, no matter which plan is chosen, there will be no major changes in the short term, so there is no need to be too eager to enter or exit the market because of the imminent interest rate cut. Keeping a stable mentality is the first priority. It is not a pity to make less profit or lose money, because the mentality turns a trading system that should have been profitable into a loss, which is a real regret.

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