The reasons why the market is moving forward can be analyzed from the following aspects:
The primary factor is that the previous round of gains was too large, and a deep wash should have been carried out in January, but it failed to adjust in time, resulting in the accumulation of adjustment pressure until March, which then evolved into an unprecedented large adjustment. For this reason, I predicted in January that only when the leading altcoin ORDI pulled back to 20u would it be the time for me to enter the market to buy the bottom.
Secondly, the market needs to deleverage. Due to the accumulation of too many long contracts, it will inevitably lead to large-scale liquidation events. In fact, August 5 has become the day with the highest liquidation volume in the history of the currency circle. Since the record of the currency circle has been set, I think it is unlikely that the market will touch the point below 49,000 again in the short term, that is, within a few months. Therefore, it can be considered that 49,000 is a sign that the bottom has been formed. Theoretically, the recent second bottoming should not be lower than 49,000, and in extreme cases it may only be slightly higher than 50,000.
Furthermore, the current market position is close to the high point of the previous bull market, and there are a lot of locked-in positions that need to be digested. Therefore, the market needs to gradually clean up these locked-in disks through rebounds, adjustments and shocks, and this process may take longer. Therefore, even if the market continues to fluctuate from September to October, there is no need to be surprised. This is a good thing, because the longer the accumulation time, the stronger the subsequent burst of power, and for investors who invest in altcoins, this also means that the potential returns will be higher.
