Historical cycle comparison
The last bull run began in December 2018, while the current bull run began in November 2022 (the bear market low). While history repeats itself, the circumstances are never exactly the same each time because the fundamental characteristics of human nature remain the same.
Trend line analysis
Through three weekly trend lines, we can determine the changes in these two bull-bear cycles:
In December 2021, the price of Bitcoin fell below the first "bull-bear dividing line". The right side signal of this trend confirmed that the climax of the bull market has ended and the market has switched into a bear market cycle.
In January 2023, the price broke through the second "bull-bear dividing line", a signal that confirmed the end of the bear market and the beginning of a bull market cycle.
Currently, the third "bull-bear dividing line" formed since November 2022 is the key support for the medium- and long-term upward trend defined by me. If the price falls below this upward trend line, it may have an adverse impact on the bull market outlook. If the current Bitcoin price is still above this line, the bull market is still continuing well.
Market shocks and adjustments
In every bull market, prices are usually sold off and whipsawed when they hit new all-time highs. Short- and medium-term bulls may take profits at this time, while bears may bet on a pullback. This pullback is in line with the market's expectations of long and short turnover. However, as mentioned earlier, history will repeat itself, but it will not repeat itself simply.
We are currently experiencing the largest adjustment cycle in history. During this half-year adjustment period, most altcoins still hit record lows, with only Inscription and AI tracks performing relatively strongly. The market has formed a diffusion triangle oscillation structure, with $50,000 being the key weekly support area. I personally define this adjustment as a 4-wave adjustment, corresponding to the box oscillation structure from April to October 2023.
Market Outlook
No matter how you look at it, I am bullish on the market and believe that the current situation is just a relay shock in the bull market uptrend. According to historical cycles, the bull market will not be so short-lived, although it may have entered the second half of the mid-term bull market.
Fundamental factors
From a fundamental perspective, the Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates this month, and the market will enter a phase of liquidity easing. Although many assets have fallen during the historical interest rate cut cycle, the analysis of fundamentals should not be summarized in a single way, but should be deduced based on the current market situation. For example, the recent market concerns about recession and whether the US stock market will show a downward trend need to be gradually adjusted based on actual information. For more market information and strategies, follow my personal profile and find me, and share strategies for spot and contract trading for free. ➕👗➩BNB0098
Summarize
With $50,000 as the bottom line, we are betting on the next possible uptrend, the fifth wave. With a clear stop loss bottom line, the extent of profit will depend on the trend strength of the market. No matter how the market changes, ensuring survival and risk control is the top priority. The greatest certainty of the market lies in its uncertainty. Only when we effectively control every loss can we be invincible in the market.
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