BTC drew a cross star last night. It rose first, then fell, and then went up again. Before the US inflation data was released, it once rose to 58k. Less than two hours after the inflation data was released, the bears were in trouble and pushed it down to 55.55k. Then the bulls launched a strong counterattack and have reached the 58k high again in the early morning of today. This wave of washing is also fierce. Those who are long or short will be beaten. Unless they are very determined, they will be carried away.
The data released last night was mixed. The good news was that overall inflation had dropped significantly, but the bad news was that core inflation had risen slightly. Wall Street believes that core inflation is more worthy of attention. The rise indicates that inflationary pressure continues, which may limit the Fed's ability to cut interest rates sharply. Obviously, Wall Street is generally biased towards the negative, that is, bearish.
Now the Fed has revealed its cards: it will look at both inflation and employment. If inflation is low, it will not hurt the economy, so interest rates can be cut, which is like adding sweetness to sweetness. If employment is poor and the economy is in recession, interest rates must be cut, which is like adding sweetness to bitterness. Adding sweetness to sweetness will make it sweeter. Adding sweetness to bitterness may still be bitter.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics understands the ways of the world. It is half sweet, half bitter, but overall it is more bitter. This leaves the power of life and death in the hands of the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve will definitely see the data earlier than the market and will see more.
But the short sellers who bet on a plunge also miscalculated. There is bitterness in the sweetness. Although it tastes bitter, there is still sweetness in the bitterness. "Limiting the ability to cut interest rates sharply" does not mean not cutting interest rates. In order to guide market sentiment to neither no interest rate cut (tightening negative) nor a sharp interest rate cut (recession negative), but to a precise -25bp (loosening positive + no recession positive), the Fed has taken great pains.
When the market realized the Fed's good intentions and used such clever guidance to hint the market about their views on the future market, the market immediately responded with a sharp rebound. Huang Renxun released good news at the right time and shouted orders with a loud speaker, which directly reversed the decline of the Nasdaq and turned it upward, beating the short sellers to pieces.
A double explosion of long and short positions, nothing more than that.
The current small-scale price of Bitcoin has once again touched the pressure line near 58,500, but it has been pushed down several times in a row, which means that the selling pressure has been almost digested, so I think there is a high probability of a breakthrough this time, and once it breaks through, there is hope for 6w above.
It is a good thing to try to break through now, and see whether it can break through today and tomorrow and stand firm and return to the upper track of the daily line. Once successful, it will play a certain encouraging role in the current price trend.
It should be noted that if the breakthrough and stabilization cannot be completed in the remaining two trading days of this week, bullish sentiment will decline next week. At the same time, next week will be a critical time for monetary interest rate adjustments. Before the interest rate decision, the overall sentiment in the risk market will be relatively conservative.
At the same time, after the interest rate decision is made next week, the dot plot will reveal the future rate cut rhythm, which will have a greater impact on the market. So I think this week's breakthrough and stabilization may be a good time, of course, maintaining a conservative expectation of small fluctuations is also good.
Only use strength to speak, and use value to reflect! We will help you control the position accurately and grasp the profit. When the market is good, you can make money no matter how you play, but you must know that the market will not always be good! ! ! When to buy and when to sell in the market is important. If you want to get higher returns, the choice is yours, and choice is greater than hard work!
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