The debate that Trump and Harris will face tonight seems to shape not only political promises but also how the stock market screens and Wall Street pulse will beat.
So how did the S&P 500 move in past elections?
US presidential elections have historically been an important factor affecting the return of the S&P 500. However, it should not be forgotten that the effects of election results on the market are usually complex and multi-factorial.
While higher average returns are observed in years when Republican presidents are elected, returns are relatively lower in years when Democratic presidents are elected.
While the average return of the S&P 500 is 11.2% in years when Republican presidents are elected, the fact that Republican administrations generally adopt pro-business policies can positively affect market expectations.
While the average return is limited to 4.3% in years when Democratic presidents are elected, it can be stated that this difference is due to the negative impact of external economic factors in some election years (especially in 2008).
When all election years are considered, the average return of the S&P 500 is 7.5%, while the index has positive performance in 18 out of 24 presidential election years (75%).
Market movements during the Republican and Democrat era
In 2016, the S&P 500 returned 9.5% with the election of Donald Trump (Republican), while in 2012, the re-election of Barack Obama (Democrat) resulted in a return of 13.4%.
In 2008, when Barack Obama was elected, the S&P 500 experienced a 38.5% decline. This can be largely attributed to the global financial crisis.
In 1980, when Ronald Reagan (Republican) was elected, the S&P 500 rose 25.8%. This is considered one of the important examples of the positive impact of a Republican administration on the markets.
As a result, the Trump-Harris debate may cause a change in the voting rates. Therefore, in this environment, you can limit your losses and benefit from possible increases by shaping your portfolio according to developments.
So, which stocks could benefit from the Trump-Harris match?