The debate that Trump and Harris will face tonight seems to shape not only political promises but also how the stock market screens and Wall Street pulse will beat.
So how did the S&P 500 move in past elections?
US presidential elections have historically been an important factor affecting the return of the S&P 500. However, it should not be forgotten that the effects of election results on the market are usually complex and multi-factorial.
While higher average returns are observed in years when Republican presidents are elected, returns are relatively lower in years when Democratic presidents are elected.
While the average return of the S&P 500 is 11.2% in years when Republican presidents are elected, the fact that Republican administrations generally adopt pro-business policies can positively affect market expectations.
While the average return is limited to 4.3% in years when Democratic presidents are elected, it can be stated that this difference is due to the negative impact of external economic factors in some election years (especially in 2008).
When all election years are considered, the average return of the S&P 500 is 7.5%, while the index has positive performance in 18 out of 24 presidential election years (75%).
Market movements during the Republican and Democrat era
In 2016, the S&P 500 returned 9.5% with the election of Donald Trump (Republican), while in 2012, the re-election of Barack Obama (Democrat) resulted in a return of 13.4%.
In 2008, when Barack Obama was elected, the S&P 500 experienced a 38.5% decline. This can be largely attributed to the global financial crisis.
In 1980, when Ronald Reagan (Republican) was elected, the S&P 500 rose 25.8%. This is considered one of the important examples of the positive impact of a Republican administration on the markets.
As a result, the Trump-Harris debate may cause a change in the voting rates. Therefore, in this environment, you can limit your losses and benefit from possible increases by shaping your portfolio according to developments.
So, which stocks could benefit from the Trump-Harris match?
#Debate2024 #trumpVSharris #USelection #Write2Earn!

The probability of Donald Trump’s electoral win has tightened, and Bitcoin's recent drop has triggered massive liquidations in the crypto market. Total crypto market liquidations reached nearly $350 million as Bitcoin briefly fell below the $69,000 mark, with this volatility occurring just days before the upcoming U.S. presidential election on November 5.
According to CoinGlass data, liquidations on November 3 totaled $349.8 million, with $259.7 million in long bets and $90.1 million in short bets. This was the highest liquidation volume since October 25, when Bitcoin failed to hold a rally above $70,000.
Bitcoin’s Wild Price Swings: Rising and Falling within Days
In recent days, Bitcoin has experienced sharp price fluctuations—starting at $67,700 on October 28, hitting a peak of nearly $73,300 on October 29, only to drop to a low of $67,719 on November 3. Following this dip, Bitcoin quickly rebounded and is now trading at $69,145, according to CoinGecko.

These Bitcoin price movements coincide with shifting odds on Polymarket, where investors focus on candidates' chances in the presidential election. In October, Trump was seen as the leading contender on Polymarket, but by October 30, his probability had dropped from a high of 67% to the current 56%.

The Crypto Community Favors Trump
The crypto industry generally views Trump as more crypto-friendly. During his campaign, he pledged that, if elected, he would dismiss SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and encourage crypto development in the U.S. Conversely, Harris has taken a more reserved stance on crypto regulation and has voiced support for stricter regulations.
Elections as a Key Factor for Bitcoin Price Movement
Trump’s winning odds on Polymarket now align with pre-election polls, showing him neck-and-neck with Harris. The FiveThirtyEight survey indicated that as of November 3, Harris held a slight lead of 0.9 percentage points.

Some traders speculate that a Trump victory could drive Bitcoin to $100,000, while analysts at Bernstein suggest that a Harris win could lead to a significant drop in Bitcoin’s value by the end of the year.
Crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades predicts that immediately after the election, Bitcoin could experience "at least a 10% shift in either direction, depending on who ultimately wins the election."

How do you think the upcoming election will impact Bitcoin's future price? Share your thoughts and predictions in the comments! Do you believe a Trump or Harris victory could shift the direction of the crypto market?

#trumpVSharris , #Election2024 , #BTC☀ , #donaldtrump , #CryptoPredictions
Notice:
,,The information and views presented in this article are intended solely for educational purposes and should not be taken as investment advice in any situation. The content of these pages should not be regarded as financial, investment, or any other form of advice. We caution that investing in cryptocurrencies can be risky and may lead to financial losses.“

Election Day is Here!

The 2024 US election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is set for November 5. However, we may not have immediate results.

Why the Delay?

Close Races Matter

If the election is tight, especially in key states like Pennsylvania, it could take days or even weeks to know the winner.

Recounts Could Happen

Small margins in votes might lead to recounts, adding more time to the process.

Understanding the Electoral Process

Electoral College Explained

In the U.S., we use the Electoral College to choose the president. This means that winning the popular vote doesn’t always mean winning the election.

State-Specific Rules

Each state has its own rules for counting votes, which can slow things down, especially if the vote is close.

When Will We Know the Winner?

While media outlets may share early results, the official announcement of the winner might not come until December if the race is particularly competitive.

📢 What Are Your Thoughts?

Leave a comment below, and don’t forget to like and follow us for more updates!

#USElections2024Countdown #trumpVSharris #Elections2024 #NovemberMarketAnalysis #CryptoAMA
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