The probability of Donald Trump’s electoral win has tightened, and Bitcoin's recent drop has triggered massive liquidations in the crypto market. Total crypto market liquidations reached nearly $350 million as Bitcoin briefly fell below the $69,000 mark, with this volatility occurring just days before the upcoming U.S. presidential election on November 5.
According to CoinGlass data, liquidations on November 3 totaled $349.8 million, with $259.7 million in long bets and $90.1 million in short bets. This was the highest liquidation volume since October 25, when Bitcoin failed to hold a rally above $70,000.
Bitcoin’s Wild Price Swings: Rising and Falling within Days
In recent days, Bitcoin has experienced sharp price fluctuations—starting at $67,700 on October 28, hitting a peak of nearly $73,300 on October 29, only to drop to a low of $67,719 on November 3. Following this dip, Bitcoin quickly rebounded and is now trading at $69,145, according to CoinGecko.
These Bitcoin price movements coincide with shifting odds on Polymarket, where investors focus on candidates' chances in the presidential election. In October, Trump was seen as the leading contender on Polymarket, but by October 30, his probability had dropped from a high of 67% to the current 56%.
The Crypto Community Favors Trump
The crypto industry generally views Trump as more crypto-friendly. During his campaign, he pledged that, if elected, he would dismiss SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and encourage crypto development in the U.S. Conversely, Harris has taken a more reserved stance on crypto regulation and has voiced support for stricter regulations.
Elections as a Key Factor for Bitcoin Price Movement
Trump’s winning odds on Polymarket now align with pre-election polls, showing him neck-and-neck with Harris. The FiveThirtyEight survey indicated that as of November 3, Harris held a slight lead of 0.9 percentage points.
Some traders speculate that a Trump victory could drive Bitcoin to $100,000, while analysts at Bernstein suggest that a Harris win could lead to a significant drop in Bitcoin’s value by the end of the year.
Crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades predicts that immediately after the election, Bitcoin could experience "at least a 10% shift in either direction, depending on who ultimately wins the election."
How do you think the upcoming election will impact Bitcoin's future price? Share your thoughts and predictions in the comments! Do you believe a Trump or Harris victory could shift the direction of the crypto market?
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