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Weekly Review
This week, from September 2 to September 9, the highest price of Sugar Orange was around $59,809 and the lowest was close to $52,550, with a fluctuation range of about 6.97%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chip transactions around 56,000, which will have certain support or pressure.
analyze:
59000-63000: about 1.44 million pieces;
64000-68000: about 930,000 pieces;
The probability of not falling below 49,000-53,000 in the short term is 70%;
The probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 92%.
Important news
Economic News
On September 9, CICC’s research report pointed out that the decline in the U.S. unemployment rate in August reflected a reversal of temporary unemployment, which was in line with expectations; the U.S. economy is still expected to achieve a soft landing, but the Federal Reserve must also take action.
According to CNBC, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the U.S. economy is in good shape and that cooler employment data in recent months suggests the economy is in a soft landing rather than a recession.
Fed Governor Waller said the time had come to begin a series of rate cuts this month. "If the data supports continued rate cuts, then I think continued rate cuts are appropriate. If the data indicates that a larger rate cut is needed, then I would also support it."
The number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in August was lower than expected. Waller, one of the most influential officials of the Federal Reserve, said that it is crucial to start cutting interest rates in September and that he is open to the intensity and speed of the rate cut. The "New Fed News Agency" interpreted Waller's speech and said that he tends to support a 25 basis point rate cut at the beginning.
After data showed that U.S. job growth in August was lower than expected, economists at Bank of America expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the next five meetings. This means that the Fed will cut interest rates three times before the end of this year, one more than the two cuts previously predicted by Bank of America.
Encrypted ecological news
QCP: Institutions may believe that the market has bottomed out and increase bullish bets in December and March next year;
Bitcoin is expected to hit new highs later this year and could reach $90,000 by the fourth quarter if Trump wins the U.S. election in November, brokerage Bernstein said in a research note on Monday, September 9.
Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, a financial advisory publication, wrote in an article on X: “This year’s Bitcoin price structure is beginning to look strikingly similar to that of 2019. Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase, and interestingly, just like in 2019, this consolidation has lasted for 175 days (so far).
"Overall, we continue to believe that the crypto ecosystem lacks a major catalyst, so we expect crypto tokens and asset prices to become more sensitive to macro factors," said a team of analysts led by Kenneth Worthington at JPMorgan Chase (JPM).
The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) is taking the lead in developing financial infrastructure that would allow the country to use cryptocurrencies for international trade and circumvent Western sanctions, according to a report by blockchain analytics provider Chainaanalysis.
Vitalik said in the Reddit sub-forum that the current budget strategy of the Ethereum Foundation (EF) is to spend 15% of the remaining funds each year, which means that the foundation will operate forever, but as a part of the ecosystem it will become smaller and smaller over time.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
Long-term participants' position structure
Net addition and destruction of chips
High quality selling pressure
ETH address profitability
(The figure below shows the long-term participants’ holding structure)
The long-term participants increased their holdings abnormally quickly, far surpassing the chip re-collection scene in 2019.
From here, long-term participants are still relatively firmly in the buying phase.
And relatively united.
(The following figure shows the net increase and destruction of chips)
Judging from the chart of chip additions to chip destruction, gold is a net addition.
At present, the net new chips have increased significantly.
(Figure below: high-quality selling pressure)
High-quality selling pressure is still in a relatively low selling pressure area.
This shows that at this stage, no heavyweight participants are involved in further selling.
(The following figure shows the profit level of ETH addresses)
What’s interesting is that judging from ETH’s profitable addresses, ETH’s profit level is close to that of a bear market, and its condition is very sluggish.
ETH performed very badly in this round.
Mid-term exploration
ETH exchange circulation ratio
Balance of OTC related addresses
Positive sentiment on the Internet
Liquidity Supply
Whale comprehensive scoring model
(The following figure shows the proportion of ETH in circulation on exchanges)
ETH's current circulation status is better and its share is higher.
It usually indicates that the market has a higher risk appetite, and the overall stability may still be insufficient.
The market may gradually stabilize when the circulation ratio of ETH is low.
(Balance of OTC related addresses in the figure below)
The data represents the cumulative balances of cryptocurrencies stored in addresses associated with over-the-counter (OTC) desks.
When the over-the-counter demand suddenly increases, it may cause the OTC merchants in the venue to increase the storage of BTC, which in turn promotes the shortage of demand in the venue.
Usually, when the data rises, it may indicate demand for BTC from some users, which can be judged as a positive signal. It is currently falling to a lower point.
(Figure below: Network sentiment positivity)
The online sentiment in the venue is still declining, and the time for recovery may be slightly longer.
(Figure below shows liquidity supply)
Under conditions of declining liquidity, the overall trading enthusiasm in the market will also decline, which may cause the market to struggle.
(The following figure shows the comprehensive scoring model of the giant whale)
Judging from the current situation, the demand for whales is still relatively high, and whales may be the main supporting force in the market.
At the same time, under current conditions, there may be an urgent need for whales to unwind their positions or to rebound.
Short-term observation
Derivatives Risk Factor
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivatives Trading Volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and loss transfer
New addresses and active addresses
Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange
Net position of the Auntie Exchange
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net positions
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: The risk factor has entered the neutral zone and the risk is moderate.
(The figure below shows the risk factor of derivatives)
The market has been volatile recently, and derivatives have a lower priority in the market. Judging from the risk factor alone, the market does not have much directional direction.
(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)
Options trading volume and the proportion of put options have both increased significantly.
(Figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives trading volume is at the bottom area.
(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)
Implied volatility has increased slightly.
Emotional state rating: Neutral to negative
(The following figure shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
The positive market sentiment (blue line) is at a low level, and the panic sentiment (orange line) has increased slightly this week, but has now declined. In general, the market is not as panic as shown in social media opinion. On the contrary, most of the chips in the loss situation are in diamond hands.
In other words, there is no large-scale panic selling at present.
(Figure below shows newly added addresses and active addresses)
New and active addresses are at low levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC has accumulated a small amount of inflow, and ETH has accumulated a medium amount of inflow.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
A small amount of BTC flows in, and the previously flowing in chips have not been fully digested.
(The following figure shows the net position of E-Tai Exchange)
ETH has a medium inflow accumulation.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
There is no high-weight selling pressure at present.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power is in a state of loss, and stablecoin purchasing power is being lost in large quantities.
(Figure below shows the global purchasing power status)
America is still losing purchasing power.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDC exchanges)
USDC exchange net positions have been losing a lot.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 50,000; there is a willingness to sell at 65,000.
(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is willingness to buy at a price around 50,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 65,000 and 70,000.
(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)
There is willingness to buy at a price around 50,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 65,000 and 70,000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 45,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 67,000.
This week’s summary:
Summary of news:
The market is experiencing the U.S. economic soft landing for almost the first time; at the same time, it is nurturing and emitting doubts from different angles.
At the same time, market participants are in an extremely sensitive situation, and any slight disturbance is enough to cause a stir.
When substantial good news approaches, the market does not react at all, often due to excessive pessimism.
The market is waiting for interest rate cuts. There are not many mainstream narratives in the current crypto market, and it may be more sensitive to the macro economy.
After the interest rate cut, part of the US$6 trillion+ in funds will flow back to the capital market and risk market.
On-chain long-term insights:
Long-term participants increased their on-chain holdings extremely quickly, without any sign of wavering;
Judging from the addition and destruction of chips, we are currently in the stage of adding a large number of chips;
High-quality selling pressure remains in the lower range, proving that not much selling has occurred among the heavyweights;
Judging from the profit level of ETH addresses, it has returned to the situation of the previous bear market.
Market setting:
Although the market has experienced brutal shocks in the past six months, long-term participants have not wavered at all. Currently, heavyweight participants have no intention of selling, and the market may slowly stabilize.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
ETH accounts for a high proportion, and market stability may need to be restored;
OTC demand is low;
The online mood is waiting to be repaired;
Liquidity is currently in a relatively scarce state;
The whales may currently have a need to unwind their losses.
Market setting:
Repair, Wander
The market is approaching the edge of its downward limit and may experience a period of lingering and correction.
The rebound force may be concentrated on the demand of big whales to get out of their positions.
On-chain short-term observations:
The risk factor has entered the neutral zone and the risk is moderate.
The number of newly added active addresses is relatively low.
Market sentiment status rating: neutral to negative.
The overall net position of the exchange shows a small accumulation of BTC inflows and a medium accumulation of ETH inflows.
Global purchasing power is in a state of loss, and stablecoin purchasing power is being lost in large quantities.
Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 50,000 and a willingness to sell at 65,000.
The probability that it will not fall below 49,000-53,000 in the short term is 70%; the probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 92%.
Market setting:
There are two aspects to consider at present. First, the market is not currently experiencing a huge panic sell-off. Second, purchasing power and positive sentiment are still being lost, and the market may continue to fluctuate or plunge downward. Overall, September is more dependent on news stimulation in the short term.
Risk Warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
