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This week's review
This week, from October 28 to November 4, the highest price of Sugar Orange was around $73,620 and the lowest was close to $67,864, with a fluctuation range of about 7.82%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chip transactions around 65,000, which will have certain support or pressure.
analyze:
59000-63000: about 1,755,300 pieces;
64000-68000: about 1.2952 million pieces;
The probability of not falling below 53,000-57,000 in the short term is 70%;
The probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 60%.
Important news
Economic News
The U.S. GDP in the third quarter was 2.8%, 3% lower than expected and 3% lower than the previous value.
The third Li core PCE price index was 2.2%, higher than the expected value of 2.1% and lower than the previous value of 2.8%.
The core PCE price index rose 2.2% in the third quarter, roughly in line with the Federal Reserve's target and likely to support monetary easing.
The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November is 96.5%, and the probability of another 25 basis point rate cut in December is 75%.
Citi believes that gold prices still have room to rise to $3,000 an ounce in the next six months as the US job market continues to deteriorate and demand for gold ETFs increases.
Economic research firm Capital Economics said: In the coming months, the results of the US election will not have a significant impact on the prices of most commodities, and it is optimistic that gold prices will continue to rise in 2025.
Encrypted ecological news
Jimmy Patronis, Chief Financial Officer of the State of Florida, USA, expressed his hope that the agency that manages the state’s retirement fund would consider BTC, making the state the third state to use retirement funds to invest in BTC.
In May of this year, the Wisconsin Investment Committee invested $164 million in Grayscale and BlackRock's spot BTC ETF, of which cryptocurrency assets accounted for approximately 0.1% of its total assets under management.
In July, the Michigan Retirement System also disclosed its investment in BTC, holding 110,000 shares of the ARK21Shares ETF, accounting for 0.003% of its managed assets.
Cointelegraph reports that BTC hit $73,562, and despite the recent significant price increase, search interest in BTC on Google is still only a fraction of last week’s AI traffic. Relative to late May 2021 (when search volume reached an all-time high), BTC’s search interest currently shows 23 points (out of 100 points), and BTC’s near all-time high has not yet awakened retail investors.
Cointelegraph reports: Microsoft shareholders have begun a preliminary vote on whether the company should invest in BTC.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has officially accepted the application to convert the Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) into an ETF, and the SEC is soliciting public comments.
Grayscale seeks to convert its hybrid crypto fund, which includes BTC, ETH, Solana, XRP, and Avalanche, into an ETF.
CZ said in an interview at Dubai Blockchain Week that he could not predict the future, but he could analyze history. Historically, BTC has experienced a very clear four-year cycle. 2013 and 2017 were bull markets, 2012 was a recovery year, 2016 was also a recovery year, and 2017 was a surge.
2020 is also a year of recovery, and 2021 is a bull market. Based on existing analysis, 2024 should also be a "year of recovery". It is not clear what will happen next year, and CZ himself is still very optimistic about the entire industry.
Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, said that the total holdings of BTC ETFs are expected to exceed Satoshi Nakamoto's holdings (about 1.1 million BTC) in mid-December. If Trump is elected, we may see a surge in FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment, accelerating this process.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
Large net positions on exchanges
ETF fund inflows
Illiquidity Whales
Whale Net Position
(The following figure shows large net positions on exchanges)
Large flows of funds to exchanges show that high net worth participants have little buying intention and are relatively sluggish during this period.
(The figure below shows the inflow of ETF funds)
Judging from the influx of funds from external market participants, the influx of new funds is currently relatively sufficient.
It means that the market has more room to move upward in the future, or that pricing can be raised more solidly at the bottom of the shock.
(Picture below: Illiquidity Whale)
Data from illiquid whales shows that they are still buying.
They are relatively optimistic about the market outlook.
(The following figure shows the net position of whales)
This picture shows the purchasing status of the whales more clearly. This is probably the most active buying period in the past six months.
Currently, the whales have a high willingness to buy.
The overall data shows a relatively optimistic long-term future.
Mid-term exploration
Positive sentiment on the Internet
Price structure analysis model
Incremental Model
ETH exchange trend net position
Whale comprehensive scoring model
USDC Purchasing Power Comprehensive Score
(Figure below: Network sentiment positivity)
Online sentiment is still growing. From the current perspective, the sentiment in the market has not dropped sharply, and the market still has potential.
(The figure below shows the price structure analysis model)
The inventory ceiling of 71,500 is still the hurdle that the market is currently facing.
The selling effect generated at the 71,500-75,000 price range may make the game near the venue more intense. If the market wants to go up, it must overcome this difficulty.
(Incremental model below)
The volume provided by the incremental model is slightly weak at present, but it has also slightly escaped from the previous continuous weakening situation.
The performance of possible increments remains unclear.
(Figure below shows the trend of ETH exchange net positions)
It is possible that the selling pressure in the market is concentrated among the ETH user group.
At the same time, according to market reviews, ETH's performance has been weaker than BTC in the past year. Perhaps in this skeptical atmosphere, people in the market are more inclined to sell ETH.
(The following figure shows the comprehensive scoring model of the giant whale)
In the current state, BTC whales still tend to hold on and have not left the market in large numbers. It is possible that the large group in the market still has more patience.
(USDC purchasing power comprehensive score in the figure below)
The volume of USDC has weakened, and it is possible that institutional users in the U.S. market are taking a slightly wait-and-see attitude towards the current market conditions.
At the same time, the presidential election on November 5 will become a policy influencing factor.
Short-term observation
Derivatives Risk Factor
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivatives Trading Volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and loss transfer
New addresses and active addresses
Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange
Net position of the Auntie Exchange
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net positions
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: The derivatives risk factor has entered the neutral zone, with moderate risk.
(The figure below shows the risk factor of derivatives)
After two consecutive weeks of large-scale chip turnover, the market quickly squeezed out last week. At the current price, the chips accumulated in the previous period are rapidly reducing positions. The impact of derivatives on the market this week is still limited.
(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)
Option trading volume decreased slightly. Put option ratio decreased slightly.
(Figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives volumes are falling rapidly, awaiting the next market move.
(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)
Implied volatility of short-term options is increasing rapidly.
Emotional state rating: Neutral
(The following figure shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
The positive sentiment of the market has not been able to break through continuously, but the corresponding panic sentiment is also less. Overall, the market sentiment is still relatively neutral.
(Figure below shows newly added addresses and active addresses)
New and active addresses are at high levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC has a small inflow, and ETH has no sustained outflow.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
BTC inflows in small amounts.
(The following figure shows the net position of E-Tai Exchange)
There is no sustained outflow of ETH.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
There is no high-weight selling pressure at present.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has recovered slightly, while stablecoin purchasing power has been lost.
(Figure below shows the global purchasing power status)
There has been a slight loss of global purchasing power.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDC exchanges)
USDC exchange net positions are losing overall.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 65,000; there is a willingness to sell at 73,000.
(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 60,000~65,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 73,000 to 76,000.
(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 65,000~68,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 73,000 to 75,000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to buy at prices around 61,000 to 65,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 73,000 to 76,000.
This week’s summary:
Summary of news:
Currently, BTC's bloodsucking is rising, similar to the Fed's continued interest rate hikes in 2022-2023.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate stagnated in 2024, and it cut interest rates in September. The U.S. stock market and BTC rose. On October 29, the Nasdaq broke through its historical high, and BTC rebounded to $73,000.
For cryptocurrencies, BTC is equivalent to the Federal Reserve for copycats (there is both bloodsucking and spillover).
When the funds flowing into BTC are saturated, they will flow into some altcoins or other sectors.
To date, U.S. money funds have accumulated more than 6.5 trillion U.S. dollars in funds, and the return of funds depends on further declines in interest rates.
From the perspective of macroeconomic conditions of capital and interest rates, all conditions are met.
On-chain long-term insights:
Judging from the relatively short-term large net positions, high net worth participants are currently relatively sluggish internally;
In the past week or two, ETFs have seen a lot of external capital inflows;
Illiquidity whales are currently buying relatively actively and are still optimistic;
Judging from the net positions of whales, they are currently experiencing the most active buying intention in the past six months.
Market setting:
The big whales and external funds have behaved relatively positively and are relatively optimistic about the market outlook.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
There is still a high level of participation sentiment in the venue;
The market needs to face selling pressure between 71500 and 75000;
The increment is still unclear;
The main selling pressure is concentrated among ETH users;
The whale group still has a high willingness to hold;
USDC's performance is slightly on the sidelines.
Market setting:
Anxiety, wandering
At present, there is a lot of emotional heat in the market, with people waiting and holding on at the same time. New trend forces may be needed to drive the market, otherwise it will slide in a volatile state.
On-chain short-term observations:
The risk factor of derivatives has entered the neutral zone, and the risk is moderate.
The number of newly added active addresses is at a relatively high level.
Market sentiment status rating: Neutral.
The overall net position of the exchange shows a small inflow of BTC, and there is no sustained outflow of ETH.
Global purchasing power has recovered slightly, while stablecoin purchasing power has been lost.
Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 65,000 and a willingness to sell at 73,000.
The probability that it will not fall below 53,000-57,000 in the short term is 70%; the probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 60%.
Market setting:
The chips of the "Trump deal" are already being sold off, and the short-term market may touch the "short-term holder cost line around 64K".
The market is still quite boring after reaching the previous high, and BTC's bloodsucking trend will continue.
Risk Warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
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