Shenyu said: Be prepared to endure another 16-19 months. A stone stirs up a thousand waves, and the inside and outside of the circle are boiling for half a night. How to say it? If Shenyu could really predict this market, he would not have bankrupted and liquidated Silverfish Mining at the lowest point in the market in 2015. Of course, it is the investors who went bankrupt, and Shenyu is still a super rich man today.
After the unemployment rate and non-farm data were released last week, I reviewed the reasons for the continued decline in the market. The market linkage caused by the continuous sharp drop in the U.S. stock market mentioned above is the direct reason, but the continuous sharp drop in the U.S. stock market is fundamentally caused by deep-seated concerns about the U.S. economic recession, namely the Labor Department’s revision of the previous value of the non-farm data.
The top elites have always been so fair in their plunder of wealth. Similar to the correction of data, it is definitely impossible without the communication and cooperation of relevant departments in the early stage. Indeed, from the technical logic, it is normal that the market will not show much performance before the official interest rate cut, or more precisely, before the base of the interest rate cut is determined. The decline is to clear the leverage and reduce the subsequent pressure of pulling the market, and also to break the current consolidation shackles at a fast pace to increase market volatility.
The last data before the rate cut will be released on Wednesday this week. The seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate for the end of August was 2.9% before and 2.6% as expected, which is very close to the Fed's target. Therefore, based on the stable improvement of the current macro data and the Fed's conclusion that the current economy is not in recession, we can be sure that the first 25 basis point rate cut will have the necessary benefits for the market, while if the first 50 basis point rate cut is implemented, the panic of economic recession will come again and the economy will fall sharply.
The community also conducted technical, data, macro and cyclical thinking. We also contacted some seniors in the circle to communicate. The conclusion is undoubtedly explosive, and the polarization is particularly serious. Pessimists believe that the bull market is over, disorderly VCs have produced a large number of copycat bubbles, and the big cake has gone out of its previous high. The Ethereum ecosystem has gradually become a thing of the past. The logic of Ethereum is that the price of the currency explains everything. The bearish technical aspect comes from the current trend suppression of the daily line, the lack of long positions, and the continuous outflow of ETFs, which ultimately makes the argument that the future market can no longer replicate the glory of 21 years.
Optimists, on the contrary, do not rule out that this bull market is the most difficult to make money in all the previous bull markets. In the big picture, the trend of the times is rolling forward and is considered unstoppable; in the macro cycle, the current market situation in late 2019 is being replicated, and the rise of Bitcoin is closely following the interest rate cuts and macroeconomic conditions in the previous three to five cycles; although ETFs have outflows in the short term, they are in a state of long-term capital inflows; interest rate cuts have not yet begun, so how can the cycle end?
In my opinion, trends are not artificially controllable or changeable. Looking back at the previous two bull markets, those who couldn't stand it had already left the market, and those who persisted would not make such naive remarks. The truth does not belong to most people. The basic state of the venture capital bear market is high inflation on the macro level, high interest rates, poor liquidity on the market, and unfavorable policies emerging in an endless stream. Judging from these bear market indicators, there are really not many conditions that the crypto market can meet to continue to bear.
The market is logical, and there are only a few reasons for losing money. The short-term market is still at a critical point of market turning. It is difficult to hit a new low before the interest rate cut, and a direct reversal is even more unrealistic. To put it bluntly, it is still in the garbage time of trading at this stage. Too much worry is exhausting, and unlimited optimism is just a cover-up. So take it one step at a time. What is coming will eventually come. Otherwise, when liquidity is released, where will the money go?
BTC: Bitcoin pulled back after breaking through 54,000 points last week, and fluctuated in a small range around 55,000 points in the short term. From a technical point of view, it is currently in a stalemate between long and short positions, but there is no basis for a direct reversal of the trend. In the short term, Bitcoin support has returned to around 54,000 points on the daily line. Focus on it during the week. Continuing to probe downwards may change the current trend pattern. A pin can be inserted once, but the second placement of the extreme bottom is likely to reverse into a new starting point for a downward relay. Judging from the current market situation, the crypto market is in a technical rest period, and the linked sector is the U.S. stock market. If the U.S. stock market can curb the downward momentum last week, short-term bulls will have the opportunity to accumulate momentum for a rebound. Continue to wait and see in terms of operations. At present, the short trend is still greater than the long trend. The market will pick up and break through 57,000 points. It is still early for a reversal.
ETH: Ethereum’s weakness is linked to Bitcoin, there is really nothing much to say.
SOL: Solana has been received at 130 points, and you can connect at any time if it reaches 120. I am afraid that I can't connect when there is no opportunity, but if there is an opportunity, then go for this strong public chain.
SATS: Last week's decline was relatively resistant to declines. The four-hour bottom was around 294. If it stabilizes, it will be a new small band. From the comprehensive performance of ordi and sats, there should be a big dealer entering the market at the top of the inscription, and the chip collection is currently approaching the critical value.
The Fear and Greed Index is 26 today, which is a state of fear and is almost reaching its limit.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot goods! #美国经济软着陆？ #以太坊基金会 #美国8月非农就业人数不及预期 #BTC走势分析 #美联储何时降息？ $BTC
