The interest rate cut is like a savior in this sluggish market. The interest rate cut that we have been waiting for since last year's bear market is finally here!
However, from traditional financial institutions to cryptocurrency KOLs, everyone has different opinions on the interest rate cut, which makes people confused and don’t know whether to buy or sell at this time. In this article, we will objectively review the price trend of Bitcoin in the past few interest rate cut cycles, and answer the most concerned questions one by one: when will the price start to rise after the interest rate cut, how many times can it rise after the interest rate cut, and how long does it usually rise after the interest rate cut!

Does a rate cut mean a price increase?

The interest rate cut policy is usually to respond to the slowdown of economic growth or expected inflationary pressure. When the overall economy is facing difficulties or even the risk of recession, interest rate cuts can reduce borrowing costs, which means that "obtaining funds" becomes cheaper, which can effectively promote economic activity.

Loose policies will increase the amount of money flowing into the market, which will not only increase liquidity but also indirectly reduce the cost of holding cash. At this time, investors will tend to look for markets with higher returns, which will not only drive up traditional assets such as the stock market, but will also indirectly affect the prices of risky asset markets. Bitcoin, as an investment tool that is considered to be high-risk and high-return, is of course quite popular!

How long after the rate cut will the market start to rise: the market lag is usually 1 to 3 months

Since the market began to pick up at the end of last year, interest rate cuts have been one of the main narratives of this bull market. Not only have financial markets hyped up expectations of interest rate cuts, but some people also believe that interest rate cuts have actually been priced in.

I believe what everyone wants to know most is, after the interest rate cuts really begin, when will it start to rise?

Looking back at the performance of Bitcoin during several interest rate cut cycles, the rise will not happen immediately after the interest rate cut, but there will be a certain time lag. According to several past interest rate cut cases, the lag time is generally 1 to 3 months, and the length of the lag time depends on the speed at which the market digests the interest rate cut policy and the state of the global economy.

It can be speculated that after the first interest rate cut in 2024, the financial market may begin to gradually rise from October to December.

Which is better to buy before the interest rate cut: US stocks or Bitcoin, which will rise more?

The boosting effect of interest rate cuts on the financial market is not only reflected in Bitcoin, but will also be reflected in the world's largest financial market - the U.S. stock market. As the price of Bitcoin has become increasingly correlated with the stock market in recent years, we must also pay attention to the performance of the stock market after the past few interest rate cuts.

When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the U.S. stock market usually sees a short-term rebound. Although Bitcoin's performance sometimes lags behind the stock market, it often shows a larger increase afterwards!

According to past data, we can see that the increase in Bitcoin after the interest rate cut has the opportunity to reach hundreds of percentage points! It is in line with the previous forecast of 100,000 to 150,000!

How long does it usually take for the stock market to rise after a rate cut? How long does the rise last depends on market sentiment

The rise of Bitcoin in the interest rate cut cycle usually lasts for several months to a year, depending on market liquidity, investor risk appetite and economic fundamentals. Taking 2020 as an example, Bitcoin rebounded from the low point in March and continued to rise to the high point in April 2021, with a total increase of more than 1,500%.

2024: How Bitcoin may perform after the rate cut

Looking back at the past two interest rate cut cycles, Bitcoin's price performance outperformed the US stock market.

The general market lag time is 1 to 3 months. There is a chance that an upward trend will begin 1 to 3 months after a rate cut.

The past two interest rate cut cycles brought about rising cycles that lasted from several months to nearly a year.

The increase in Bitcoin's value during the past two interest rate cuts was 240% and 400% respectively. This time, the increase may exceed 100%, which means it has a chance to exceed $100,000.

Of course, Bitcoin prices are highly volatile, and the specific size and duration of the increase will vary depending on market sentiment and the macroeconomic environment. So even if the interest rate cut has a boosting effect on Bitcoin prices, everyone still needs to master the rhythm, formulate their own bottom-fishing and top-selling strategies, and carefully assess global economic dynamics.

80% of the selling pressure in Mentougou has been absorbed, and there are only more than 30,000 BTC left in the current Mentougou wallet. After a few more days of volatility, there should be a rebound.

Mainly focus on Wednesday evening at 8:30, when the CPI will be released. This will be the last major data before the Federal Reserve’s September interest rate meeting.

Big funds will definitely not act rashly before the CPI data is released. If the CPI data is consistent with expectations or stronger, the cryptocurrency market will fall again. Otherwise, the cryptocurrency market may sound the clarion call for a counterattack.

Operation suggestions:

This difficult time is a good opportunity to buy at the bottom in batches. There will be some bumps in the middle, but don't sell at the bottom.