The second test is completed, and the best time to open a position has appeared?

Yesterday, the August non-agricultural data was released, and the US stock market opened sharply, driving the crypto market to fall in volume.

ETH fell to 2150 at the lowest, and then rebounded in volume. As of now, most of the selling orders during yesterday's decline have been absorbed, indicating that the buying demand at this position is relatively strong.

From the perspective of the relationship between volume and price, yesterday's decline volume was significantly smaller than the volume during the panic selling on August 5, so the probability of continuing to fall and breaking through the previous low of $2111 is relatively small.

From the perspective of futures positions, the current ETH contract positions and market leverage ratio are already at a low level, and market risks have been fully released. From this perspective, the probability of continuing to fall is also relatively low.

Therefore, it can be basically considered that $ETH completed the second test one month after the panic selling on August 5, and $ETH was once again supported by the bull market trend line.

According to the Kelly formula, it can be considered that this is one of the best times to open a position.

Because the profit-loss ratio of opening a position at this position is extremely high, the stop loss point can be set at 2100. The target position of $ETH in this bull market is around 8000 US dollars, and the stop profit point can be set at 7000. If you open a position at the current position, the profit-loss ratio is more than 20 times.

However, it should be noted that the US stock market has not yet shown a signal to stop falling. If the US stock market continues to fall next week, it may drive ETH to fall again to test the previous low, so it is not advisable to open a position aggressively at present, and you can consider opening a position gradually.