1. Non-farm payrolls data: to be released on September 6. Stronger-than-expected data may push up the dollar and weaken expectations of rate cuts.
2. CPI Price Index: released on September 11. If the data continues to fall, it will support a rate cut in September.
3. Federal Reserve decision: Announced on September 19, the market estimates that there is a high probability of a 25% rate cut, but a rate cut may not immediately push up cryptocurrencies.
The US stock market fluctuated greatly this week, and risks are accumulating before the rate cut. The crypto market followed the rise and fall of the US stock market, and the capital market converged, indicating that the market is gradually maturing. Although the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 50 basis points, the negative news has not disappeared.
Logic in brief:
Interest rate cuts and the economy: Interest rates are cut when the economy is bad, and the extent of the interest rate cuts reflects economic problems and the extent of monetary easing.
Market reaction: If the economic problems are big, the market will fall first; if the problems are small and the interest rate cuts are small, the market reaction will be limited, but the sentiment will be bearish.
The contradiction of interest rate cuts: The initial market contradiction is that there is a fear that a large interest rate cut would indicate a serious problem, while there is also a fear that a small interest rate cut would not solve the problem.
Opportunities lie in the follow-up: The first interest rate cut is not a good opportunity, and we need to observe the second and third times. After the third time, funds will be truly injected, risks will be reduced, and the economy may turn around.
Difficulty in short-term operations: The current market is volatile and operations are difficult. It is recommended to remain patient and wait for clearer signals.
Summary: Be patient, wait for clear opportunities brought by subsequent interest rate cuts, and avoid short-term high-risk operations.
BTC
Yesterday's daily report indicated that it fell below 57,300 and continued to fall! This is the watershed between long and short positions. Follow the discipline and think clearly! Last night, the pin rebounded to the 55,600 given by the daily report. The short-term support is 56,300-55,800 to see if there is another opportunity to step back! Waiting for 58,000-58,300 to be tested above!
ETH
Yesterday's daily report indicated that the price fell below 2420 and continued to fall! This is also the watershed between long and short positions! The price hit a low of 2345 last night and reached the 2370-2300 area given in the daily report, and began to rebound. Currently, we are watching the 2370-2350 area to see if there is a chance for a pullback!
SUN
SOL is very good, reaching 129-127 accurately, and successfully boarding the bus to eat meat! 133-135 is waiting to be tested!
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