$BTC Bitcoin has now reached a critical position.

Bitcoin started an upward trend after October 23. From March to September this year, it has been in a falling flag shape, which is what we commonly call a bull flag. On August 5, a downward flag-shaped channel overshot and quickly recovered! I think the market outlook. After this wave of flag-shaped callbacks, there will be a good rise! Here is my analysis of three possible situations in the future market!

The first is. The market is supported by the key position of about 56,000 as shown in the figure, and then a wave of upward trend is launched. This is what many people like to see, which is in line with everyone's bullishness! That is, the channel line overshot and then stepped back to the key position to initiate an upward trend! I think the probability is 40%

The second situation is that the market reaches between 50,000 and 49,000 and steps back on the channel line. Or break 49,000 to around 47,000, and then release the upward trend! Because, if I were a banker, I would break the market at 49,000, and then blow up all the long orders or stop many long orders at 49,000 (I believe many people will stop the long orders at 49,000). I think the probability is 30%!

The third situation is September 18th when the market cooperates. The favorable landing of the interest rate cut, and then a wave of downward market, directly reaching between 44,000 and 39,000! In this way, the banker can knock out all the long orders in your hands! It is similar to 312. A drop of about 30% for two consecutive days will kill all the long orders, and then start a wave of upward trend! And there is no chance to get on the car. The probability of this is 30%!

These 3 situations are my personal opinions, and the specific market will be proved by time!