Bubble today's analysis:
BTC
The descending reversal wedge was successfully predicted, and the trend is relatively clear. According to the descending wedge, the high point will be at least around 61,000, which is the starting point, so the long position is temporarily held.
ETH
The bottom pattern has already appeared, which can be seen from the small-level triple bottom. Next, we need to pay attention to the upper pressure line near 2580. Once it breaks through and stabilizes, it will accelerate its rise and at least rush to 2700u.
If it is not stable, long orders should consider locking in profits. Judging from the current situation, the probability of rising is still very high.
September was an eventful month with many major events:
9.6 Non-agricultural
9.10 US Presidential Debate
9.11 US August CPI
9.18 Federal Reserve interest rate meeting
9.29 CZ released from prison
September is a very important month. According to historical rules, the market usually rises before and falls after a rate cut, and then a bull market starts after the fallback. So in September, the market first rises and then falls back, ending the volatility that has lasted for more than half a year. If we can get through September, we will win.
Why is the market going so hard?
First, the previous round of increase was too large, and there should have been a major clean-up in January, but there was no adjustment until March. This adjustment should be an unprecedented major adjustment.
Second, to deleverage, accumulate a large number of long contracts, and a huge amount of liquidation is required. August 5th became the first moment of liquidation in the history of the cryptocurrency circle. Since it is the first liquidation in the cryptocurrency circle, it is unlikely to appear below 49,000 in the short term, that is, the bottom is 49,000. The recent second bottoming should not be lower than 49,000, and the limit position is 50,000+.
Third, the current position is near the high point of the last bull market, and there are many locked-in positions that need to be washed out, so there will be rebound adjustments and shocks, which will take a longer time. Therefore, there is no need to be surprised even if the shocks continue in September and October. This is a good thing. The longer the accumulation time, the stronger the subsequent outbreak, and the more money can be earned by playing altcoins.
The main tactics in the bull market
In a bull market, before every violent rise, the main players will always try every means to suppress prices and force retail investors to cut their losses and leave the market.
After the violent rise, retail investors finally woke up from their dreams: it turned out that this was a trap set by the main force. When the market entered the final crazy stage, many retail investors could not hold back and rushed into the market to get the last bite of meat, hoping to expand their principal and increase their income. However, the result is often that they are firmly trapped at the top of the mountain. So, what is the strategy of the main force?
1. Suppressing prices: The main force creates price drops, making retail investors believe that the market can no longer hold and is about to fall sharply, thus inducing them to sell their positions.
2. Create an illusion: Account shrinkage is just an illusion. The main force lets you see your account shrinkage so that you can’t help but sell high and buy low.
3. Cleaning chips: When the chips of retail investors become fewer, the main force can better pull the market and control the market, trapping retail investors at high points.
In every bull market, retracement is an unchangeable phenomenon. It is normal to see 10% or even 20% retracement many times. A bull market does not mean a continuous rise. High-level shocks and washouts are common, so we should not be too idealistic. In the cryptocurrency circle, we should not be too sensitive. We should win with a good mentality and strong execution.
