2025 is not far away. Although many people are now skeptical about the crypto bull market in 2025, some friends have chosen to leave the industry due to market fluctuations. Some friends have moved the battlefield, breaking away from web3, returning to web2, and what's more The reporter has completely separated from this big family and is already running around looking for a job. We respect everyone's choice, but we still believe that every trough is to meet a higher peak. Those who have experienced the cold winter will cherish the arrival of spring even more.
Let’s get back to the topic. Will there be a crypto bull market in 2025?
Uncle San takes his friends to trace back to the past of the crypto bull market:
Historical review: Looking back at past cryptocurrency cycles, it is not difficult to find that after every trough, there will always be new growth points. Since the inception of Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency market has experienced numerous significant cyclical fluctuations. For example, after the great bull market from late 2017 to early 2018, the market experienced a long bear market, during which many investors and projects suffered heavy losses. Despite this, every market bottom is followed by the emergence of new technologies and improvements to existing technologies. For example, the rise of the smart contract platform Ethereum opened up new possibilities for decentralized applications (dApps) and initial coin offerings (ICOs), which in turn triggered the bull market from 2017 to 2018. As governments’ regulation of the cryptocurrency industry gradually becomes clearer, market maturity continues to improve, technology continues to advance and application scenarios expand, more and more investors are beginning to adopt long-term holding strategies instead of just pursuing short-term gains. , making cryptocurrency will continue to be an important force driving global economic change.
Seeing this, friends have a certain understanding of the cycle of cryptocurrency and its impact on the global economy. Regarding the question of whether there will be a crypto bull market in 2025, Sanshu puts forward his personal opinion: there will be another round of crypto bull market. The following are the four reasons that Sanshu came up with through analysis:
1. Based on my personal experience and my experience as a self-media in the cryptocurrency field over the past few years, especially the observations made during the past four years of full-time community operations, it is estimated that about 85%-90% of cryptocurrency investors are currently in a loss-making state. This proportion includes not only senior investors who entered the market before 2019, but also a large number of KOLs, full-time practitioners, and new investors after the 2023 bull market. In addition, many funds in the primary and secondary markets are also facing a loss-making situation. It is precisely because of such widespread losses that many investors' principal has been greatly reduced, and their positions have become very cautious, and even some people's reserve capital dare not be easily invested in the market. This situation seems unfavorable, but in fact it lays a solid foundation for the future bull market. As the market continues to fluctuate, more people choose to leave the market because of losses, and the market's money-making effect weakens, which in turn creates conditions for the launch of the next round of market. Against this background, market sentiment has reached a low point, but this is also the time when new opportunities are quietly brewing.
2. Past experience shows that Bitcoin's halving event every four years is usually accompanied by the arrival of a bull market cycle. This rule has been verified in the past few halvings. Bitcoin halving took place in April this year. Based on past historical patterns, we can expect that a new round of bull market may begin between October and December this year.
3. The successful approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs on Wall Street provides a quick way for more traditional large funds to enter the crypto market. With the approval of spot ETFs, traditional financial institutions and individual investors can also more easily participate in Bitcoin and Ethereum investments, which has introduced a large amount of new funds into the crypto market.
4. The Fed’s interest rate cuts in September and November are almost certain, and the rate cut cycle will continue throughout 2025 and may even extend into 2026. Given the current economic situation, the implementation of quantitative easing (QE) seems to be an inevitable choice. Therefore, quantitative easing measures in the external market are likely to have a positive impact on the crypto market. With the reduction of interest rates and the implementation of quantitative easing policies, more funds may flow into the crypto market, which is seen as a major positive factor.
The above is Sanshu’s analysis of why a new round of crypto bull market will appear in 2025. Sanshu firmly believes that 2025 will usher in a bull market in the cryptocurrency market, and has made full preparations for it. He also firmly believes that Bitcoin will be able to break through the 1 million US dollar mark around 2030.
In addition, for the upcoming bull market cycle, the following factors may become catalysts for market development and form a positive cycle:
1. Recognition at the national level: Some countries have announced that Bitcoin will be used as legal tender or foreign exchange reserves, which will significantly increase the legitimacy and acceptance of Bitcoin.
2. Sovereign wealth funds and pension allocations: Sovereign wealth funds and pensions in some countries have begun to allocate Bitcoin and Ethereum, which will bring a large amount of institutional funds to the crypto market.
3. Quantitative easing policy: A new round of large-scale quantitative easing (QE) may release a large amount of liquidity, and some of the funds may flow into the cryptocurrency market
4. Innovation of blockchain technology: With the continuous advancement of blockchain technology, new applications and services may attract a large number of new users into the market, thus bringing about a money-making effect and greater market recognition.
5. Participation of listed companies: Currently, more than 30 listed companies in Japan have shown holdings of Bitcoin in their financial statements. As the market develops, more listed companies are expected to join the ranks.
As we all know, when we discuss the potential positive factors in the bull cycle of the crypto market, we should also always pay attention to the risks that come with these positive developments. Here are a few risk points worth noting:
Risk 1: The market continues to fluctuate sideways, lacking an obvious money-making effect. This situation may cause the start of the bull market to exceed expectations, for example, the bull market may be delayed until the second half of 2025.
I think there is a possibility that the market may continue to fluctuate sideways beyond our expectations, which means we need to be more patient and wait for the bull market to come. It may not be wise to allocate too many altcoins before the big bull market officially starts. If the market is in a state of sideways fluctuation for a long time, the price of altcoins may fall further, so it may be a better choice to be cautious at this stage.
Risk 2: This round of Bitcoin halving does not immediately trigger the widely expected bull run, or the bull run may have peaked and ended in March this year.
Sanshu believes that this risk is less likely. Even if there is no bull market after this round of halving, or the bull market has ended in March this year, holding Bitcoin and Ethereum as part of the main investment portfolio can help deal with this risk.
Risk 3: The market may not enter the expected bull market, but may enter a bear market period.
This risk involves the systemic risk of the industry, which usually requires close attention to changes in the internal and external environment of the industry. At present, there is no obvious sign that this risk is about to occur. In order to better assess this risk, we can continue to pay attention to some key indicators, such as the inflow of stablecoins, the inflow of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, etc., so as to capture market dynamics in a timely manner.
The above is all I have to say today. Regardless of whether there will be a crypto bull market in 2025, we should keep a calm and rational mindset, continue to learn, do a good job of risk management, and remain patient, so that we can be invincible in the market. Finally, there is a saying in "Hometown" that "there is no road in the world, but when more people walk, it becomes a road." Roads are made by walking, not by thinking. I hope you can still maintain a tenacious attitude when facing unknown challenges. #加密市场反弹 $BTC
