According to BlockBeats, Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at The Leuthold Group, said that although policy officials and investors are worried about overheating, an economic slowdown is more likely in 2025, which could cause a stock market correction of at least 10%.
Jim Paulsen pointed out that since 2003, bond yield fluctuations have usually led to economic surprises, with lower yields meaning an improving economy and vice versa. The current 4.6% bond yield suggests that the first quarter economic surprise index will slow to -35 and GDP will also slow.
Jim Paulsen said that if concerns about an economic slowdown intensify, the stock market's rise could pause or even see a 10% to 15% pullback.