On Friday (August 9), Bitcoin continued to fluctuate around $61,000 after a jump of more than 10% overnight. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell more than expected, boosting buying in the crypto market. In the Polymarket crypto betting market, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris's November win rate tied, and the cryptocurrency community believes that the price of the currency is "decoupling" from Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. Senior White House officials held a telephone conference with crypto leaders to discuss crypto policy.
Regarding the reason for the sharp rise in the cryptocurrency market, the market generally believes that it may be because the United States released the latest weekly initial unemployment benefit data on Thursday, with the number of initial unemployment claims reported at 233,000, a decrease of 17,000 from the previous week and lower than the market forecast of 240,000. Strong employment and a larger-than-expected decline have eased investors' concerns about a US recession.
At the close of U.S. stocks on Thursday, the four major indexes rose collectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 683 points, or 1.76%, to close at 39,446; the S&P 500 rose 2.3%, its best performance since 2022; the Nasdaq rose 2.87%; and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index had the largest increase of 6.86%.
On the other hand, the continued reversal of inflows into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs since Wednesday may also be the reason for the market's continued rise.
CryptoSlate reported that for the first time since Harris won the nomination, Bitcoin price has decoupled from Trump's odds of winning the 2024 election on Polymarket. Trump has been leading on Polymarket since April, with his odds as high as 72% shortly after the assassination. However, his odds began to fall after Biden dropped out of the race.
The article mentioned that once Bitcoin reaches $70,000, Trump's chances of winning will continue to decline, and the price of Bitcoin will also fall. This has led many to believe that the price of Bitcoin has become associated with Trump's chances of returning to the White House after Trump attended the Bitcoin 2024 conference.
Overnight, Trump's odds fell to 49%, the lowest level since May, while Harris' odds climbed to 50% for the first time since she announced her candidacy after a period of momentum. Meanwhile, Bitcoin broke through the $54,500 support level for the second time.
The chart below shows the price of Bitcoin over the past month (candlesticks), along with the Polymarket odds for Trump (blue):
Harris leads Trump by 10 percentage points on the non-crypto prediction market PredictIt. Harris' momentum stems from a string of successful swing state rallies and her choice of Tim Walz as her vice presidential candidate. While both candidates have unproven views on Bitcoin, Walz appears to favor stricter regulation of cryptocurrencies, which could align him with Senator Warren's approach to the industry.
However, billionaire Mark Cuban recently commented that the vice president's policy preferences have little impact on presidential policies. "The vice president's views on policy will become polite conversation on the campaign plane, but they are completely meaningless," he said.
If Harris continues to lead in the polls until November, it will be interesting to see if Bitcoin re-correlates with Trump’s odds or continues to rise. If Trump regains the lead on Polymarket, this could also lead to a positive move in Bitcoin’s price. However, Fox News also reported on the new Crypto For Harris event, and the Fairshake crypto super PAC also announced that it would donate to Republicans and Democrats who announced their support for the industry.
The changes suggest that cryptocurrency has the potential to become a bipartisan issue in the upcoming election.
According to The Block, senior White House officials and crypto industry leaders held a conference call on Thursday to discuss future cryptocurrency policies. Government officials including U.S. Treasury Undersecretary Wally Adeyemo, National Economic Council Director Lael Brainard, White House Deputy Chief of Staff Bruce Reid, and Vice President Harris' Senior Advisor and Director of Legislative Affairs Christine Lucius attended the meeting.
Meanwhile, crypto industry figures attending the meeting included Ripple executives Brad Garlinghouse and Chris Larsen, Uniswap CEO Hayden Adams, Stellar Development Foundation Denelle Dixon, Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire, billionaire Mark Cuban, Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal, and former White House Communications Director Anthony Scaramucci.
Some industry insiders at the meeting reportedly “expressed dissatisfaction,” but they also talked about use cases and policy outcomes, including what regulators should be looking for and what the government should do to protect their privacy.
Focus on jobs and economic impact. Neither White House representatives nor Harris’ advisers made any commitments, according to people familiar with the matter.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
According to CoinGlass, over $189 million in trades were liquidated in cryptocurrency markets over the past 24 hours, including $109 million in short positions.
Kitco pointed out that Bitcoin bulls took control of the price trend and rushed all the way back above $59,000, and are currently seeking to stabilize the support level of $60,000.
Analysts at Secure Digital Markets said: "Bitcoin is beginning to regain momentum and is experiencing some volatility. We have finally seen a decisive breakthrough above the key resistance level of $58,000, with prices now targeting the next targets of $60,250 and $63,000. Funding rates have stabilized across the board, and since the rally is mainly driven by spot, the signs are bullish."
Market analyst CryptoCo said: “Like floating underwater, Bitcoin has once again rebounded from the magic band level 2 at $55,444. This also means that the level 3 target of $94,302 is now still intact.”
He added: “The top of the cycle has risen to $128,062 and further gains are expected when prices make new highs. On the $493,000 drop, prices perfectly retested the range below level 2. This is the 5th time this cycle that a general recession call has brought a strong rebound, it’s strange how it works.”
Market analyst LSDinmysoul said that Bitcoin's performance in a small range between $59,000 and $60,000 will determine whether it breaks through $65,000 or falls back to $53,000.
Therefore, it is worth noting that the death cross may not be reliable as a standalone indicator. Currently, if Bitcoin fails to hold on to the resistance level of around $56,000, it may return to the recent low of $49,050.
