To summarize the reasons for yesterday’s crash:

1. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield fell by 40 basis points, oil prices plummeted, and the stock market continued to fall. The VIX index, which symbolizes the degree of market panic, rose by 25% on Friday. The VIX index reflects the market's concerns about the future stock market. Investors usually regard the VIX index as a reverse indicator.

2. ETF spot funds outflow, Bitcoin's net outflow reached US$237 million on Friday, while Ethereum's fund flow remained neutral.

3. In the U.S. presidential election, Harris’ support rate in the polls has risen above Trump, which is extremely unfavorable to the crypto market. Although the Democratic Party is less hostile to cryptocurrencies, the overall stock market and crypto market are more inclined to support Trump.

After Bitcoin fell below $50,000 twice on Monday (5th), the market was worried that Bitcoin would continue to fall as the U.S. stock market opened in the evening, but the market is always unexpected. After 21:30 last night, it began to rise, rising to as high as $56,368. As of the time of writing, the price was $55,558. The decline in the past 24 hours has narrowed to about 3%.

Ethereum's trend is similar to that of Bitcoin. It also began to rise after the opening of the U.S. stock market, rising to as high as $2,543. As of the time of writing, the price was quoted at $2,493. The decline in the past 24 hours has narrowed to about 4.5%.

Bitcoin four-hour chart

First of all, according to the Bollinger Band indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, the current price is running on the lower track of the Bollinger Band and rebounding upward from the lower track, showing signs of recovery. The Bollinger Band opening is wide, indicating that the recent volatility is large. The price rebounded from the lower track and is close to the middle track, indicating that there is a certain rebound momentum, but it has not yet broken through the middle track. If the price breaks through the middle track, it is expected to move closer to the upper track. If it does not break through the middle track, it will consolidate below the middle track or continue to fall.

Secondly, according to the KDJ indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, the KDJ three-line value is around 50, showing signs of radiating upward from a low position, and at the same time showing that the bullish force is gradually increasing. If the K-line value breaks through the D-line value upward to form a golden cross, there is room for further increases in the short term. However, if the K-line value crosses the D-line value downward at this position to form a dead cross, the price will weaken again.

Finally, according to the MACD indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, the DIF line and the DEA line have a tendency to stick together, and the MACD green bar chart is gradually shortening, indicating that the current short-selling force is weakening, and a short-term rebound may occur. If the DIF line can cross the DEA line upward to form a golden cross, then the rebound trend is further confirmed, but if the golden cross fails to form, the price will continue to be weak.

Bitcoin one-hour chart

First, according to the Bollinger Band indicator in the Bitcoin 1H level chart, the price fluctuates between the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger Band, and gradually approaches the upper track. The price is above the middle track of the Bollinger Band, and the market sentiment is bullish in the short term. The current price is oscillating between the middle track and the upper track. If it can break through the upper track, it may rise further; if it is blocked and falls back, it may return to the vicinity of the middle track for consolidation.

Secondly, according to the KDJ indicator in the Bitcoin 1H level chart, the KDJ three-line value is hovering in the overbought range and there are signs of a high-level decline. There is a risk of adjustment or callback in the short term. If the K-line value crosses the D-line value downward to form a dead cross, the possibility of a callback will increase further.

Finally, according to the MACD indicator in the Bitcoin 1H level chart, the DIF line and the DEA line are running below the 0 axis and are close to parallel. The price faces pressure to pull back in the short term. If the DIF line crosses the DEA line downward to form a dead cross, the beginning of a short-term pullback can be confirmed. The MACD red bar chart is gradually shortening, which also shows the weakening of the upward momentum.

Comprehensive analysis shows that Bitcoin has the momentum to rebound at the 4H level, especially when the MACD indicator and KDJ indicator show that the bullish force has increased. However, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the price can break through the middle track of the Bollinger Band and whether the MACD indicator can form a golden cross. These are important signals for further bullishness. Bitcoin shows a certain upward momentum at the 1H level, but various indicators indicate the risk of short-term adjustments. The upper track of the Bollinger Band may become a short-term resistance level, and the price may be blocked and pulled back here. The weakening momentum of the MACD indicator and the pullback of the KDJ indicator from a high level also support this.

To sum up, the master gives the following suggestions for your reference:

Short Bitcoin near 56550, target 55220-53890, defense 57200.

It is better to give you a correct idea and trend than to give you a 100% accurate suggestion. After all, it is better to teach a man to fish than to give him a fish. Suggestions can make money for a while, but ideas can make money for a lifetime! What I focus on is the idea, the grasp of the trend, the layout of the market and the position planning. All I can do is to use my practical experience to help you so that your investment decisions and business management will go in the right direction.

Writing time: (2024-08-06,13:00)

(Text - Daxian Shuobi) Hereby declare: There is a delay in online release, and the above suggestions are for reference only. The author is committed to research and analysis in investment fields such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, foreign exchange, and stocks. He has been involved in the financial market for many years and has rich experience in real-time operations. Investments are risky, so be cautious when entering the market. For more real-time market analysis, please pay attention to the 伀重hao Daxian Shuobi to discuss and exchange together. $BTC