The new week started with a big crash! Bitcoin plummeted by more than 8,000 points, Ethereum fell below 2,300, and the altcoins were wiped out! How many people will quit the circle in this wave? Why did such a sharp drop occur?
In my opinion, this decline is more of a low-level reshuffle driven by BTC's own internal factors (i.e., liquidation of Mt.Gox, etc.), rather than a trend reversal driven by external factors (i.e., the Fed's interest rate cuts, the U.S. economic recession). Split the overall compensation of Mt.Gox into 1/3 must be sold, 1/3 paper hands, and 1/3 diamond hands. After taking over the 1/3 that must be sold, the market will definitely tend to find an opportunity to wash out the 1/3 paper hands, and then start a big bull market, which will be easier.
At the beginning of this year, it broke through the previous round's "previous high" of 69,000 US dollars. So, obviously, either the bull market will start and end early, or it will be washed out desperately, and all the positions that should be blown up will be blown up, so that those who should desperately cut their losses will cut their losses and leave, and those who have received unexpected windfalls will hand over their chips at a low level, and then a violent bull market will be started.
So, if there are 1/3 paper hands that need to be washed out, will the market choose to wash them out at $50,000 or $60,000, or choose to let them take profits and flee at $150,000 or $160,000? Obviously, according to the "maximum loss principle", washing them out here will make these people earn less money. According to the above analysis, if we sell 1/3 and retrace from 68k to 60k, then it is reasonable to sell another 1/3 and retrace to 52k? Surprising? Not at all.
Pull out the monthly chart, now 52k has fallen by less than 20% compared to August.
Since 2020 alone, the maximum retracement in March 2020 was -62.4% (monthly decline -25.39%), the maximum retracement in May 2021 was -53.44% (monthly decline -35.31%), the maximum retracement in January 2022 was -31.63% (monthly decline -21.41%), the maximum retracement in June 2022 was -46.13% (monthly decline -40.28%), ...
During every bull run of BTC, a retracement of more than 30% is very common. 3x+ leverage must be washed frequently. Otherwise, why would they make 2x more profit for nothing when the spot price rises by 1x? Now, the so-called "plunge" and "bloodbath", even if it is calculated from 72k to 52k, is only a -27% drop, less than 30%. Too gentle.
Many people asked me where is the bottom of this wave of plunge?
Personally, I see the lowest point at 43,000. The K-line will pull back to the middle track of the monthly MACD. Although it is basically impossible to reach 43,000 in August, there is still a certain probability of reaching here in the next few months. After March, the limit of each downtrend and rebound wave is within 20,000 points, and the average amplitude is around 16,500 points. As long as the highest point of each rebound moves down at a speed of 2,000 points, as long as this year's highest point of 73,800 cannot be broken, then 43,000 may be reached within no more than 3 months. Because the highest point of the rebound wave is constantly moving down, the lowest point of the downtrend will also continue to move down. When it moves down to around 50,000, it will be broken here, and 48,800, 46,000 and 43,000 will be seen immediately.
Don't be afraid of a sharp drop, because only a sharp drop can pick up cheap assets. Select the sectors you are optimistic about in advance, including the three major ecosystems of BTC, ETH, and SOL, DeFi, RWA, MEME, AI, GameFi, and DePIN. Needless to say, BTC is a stable asset. The DeFi and RWA sectors in the ETH ecosystem are already relatively mature. I am still optimistic about the DePIN sector in the SOL ecosystem. As for other sectors, it depends on the opinions of different people. So I will definitely buy the bottom of BTC, DeFi, RWA on ETH, and DePIN on SOL.
Only use strength to speak, and use value to reflect! We will help you control the position accurately and grasp the profit. When the market is good, you can make money no matter how you play, but you must know that the market will not always be good! ! ! When to buy and when to sell in the market is important. If you want to get higher returns, the choice is yours, and choice is greater than hard work!
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