It is expected that the drag on GDP from fiscal and monetary policies will completely pass, and the market is quite satisfied with the economic outlook🥰

After experiencing the last trough in the fourth quarter, GDP growth is expected to rebound to around 2% in 2024, mainly driven by a rebound in investment spending and residential investment, offsetting the impact of still weak manufacturing and a lack of fiscal stimulus; in addition, , it is expected that the drag on GDP from fiscal and monetary policies will completely pass before the end of this year. Therefore, as long as the Fed does not try to unexpectedly push up terminal interest rates in 2024, the market is quite satisfied with the economic outlook, and if the situation requires it, the Fed There's still plenty of ammo to go around, too.

Therefore, although the benchmark interest rate has risen by more than 5%, financial conditions are still relatively loose, and we believe that the Fed is likely to try again the "hawkish skipping rate hike" strategy, which will be reflected in Chairman Powell's remarks and the dot plot. Subtle changes are conveyed discreetly.

#财政 #货币政策 #GDP #制造业 #利率