For BTC and a number of altcoins (including ETH) - on a four-hour timeframe there is a long signal from the trend reversal indicator.
This signal was preceded by a decline in#BTCto $59,920 and#ETHto $2,878. The price of BTC has almost reached the EMA of the 200 day TF (currently $59,583).
A single indicator signal, and even on a four-hour timeframe, is not a guarantee of a reversal with such a pronounced decline. When two previous such signals on this time frame gave only minimal rebounds. But there is a possibility. By the way, on the daily TF the downward structure of the candles has the potential to decline until August 5-7. And this scenario does not rule out a rebound in the process.
Today’s decline has not yet made it clear which of the two wave interpretation options for BTC is correct:
- Either this is still wave A and there is a noticeable rebound ahead, after which there will be an update of the local loy in wave C. (as indicated on the chart)
- Either the rebound in wave B already occurred on August 1 and the price is now declining in wave C.
We wrote yesterday that we are leaning towards the first option. And for now we are not changing our opinion. If the signal on the four-hour timeframe is not broken, we expect a rebound in the range from the volume level of $64,120 to the volume level of $67,088. With a priority on the lower part of the range, given that the important resistance for a rebound is now, the EMA of the 50 day TF is now at $64,105. The intermediate volume level in this range and the “middle” option is $65,892.
Both options do not exclude the closing of the $57,880-$60,840 gap on the BTC futures chart on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). While the trend is downward, the price goes to close it. In fact, the closing has already begun; the price has passed a quarter of the way. But there is no trading on the CME right now. At the same time, on Friday, trading on the CME ended at $62,945, which is significantly higher than the current rate. This price is a “magnet” for Monday and the basis for a potential gap is already at the top. Which can just work out in the growth scenario, which is currently being signaled by the trend reversal indicator on the four-hour timeframe.
