August 3, 2024 Grandpa checks in

Last night, the price of Bitcoin "smoothly" hit 60,500, while Ethereum almost hit 2,900 USD, and basically completed the test of the first support level. The liquidation volume of the contract market exceeded 100 million USD, which shows that a lot of long and short positions have been accumulated in the recent sideways process. In fact, the volatility of Bitcoin is not large, and it is a bit unexpected that it can bring about such a liquidation volume. Before this test of the pressure level, I had already added some positions in advance, and with the part of pending orders, this time the increase in positions exceeded 10%. My operations are basically open cards, and if you agree with this increase in positions, the cost of buying now is lower than mine.

This wave of decline was mainly affected by the plunge in US stocks. Due to the surge in unemployment, the interest rate cut in September is almost certain, but the more this is the case, the more the market is worried that the Fed will cut interest rates too late. Once the economy has a hard landing, there will be another bloody storm in the US stock market. When the real interest rate cut node comes, the market is always worried, so there must be a lot of funds that choose to withdraw to avoid this uncertainty. I have mentioned this logic repeatedly. Yesterday, Intel plummeted 26% in a single day due to financial report issues. Obviously, there are also short sellers behind it.

The US stock market is either stable or has the momentum of altcoins when it falls. Not only did Intel fall 26% in a single day, but Nvidia, which was once at its peak, fell 30% from its peak in a month. The capital market is actually similar, except that the B circle trades 24 hours a day and the pace is faster. However, since this wave of decline was driven by the US stock market, I think the logic of bottom-fishing at the support level will be weaker. Although I bought a lot of positions, objectively speaking, the risk this time is greater than the last time, because the uncertainty of the US stock market has become another variable.

In terms of market conditions, this position must be bought. According to historical experience, the falling market before the interest rate cut is generally the best price before the bull market starts. Therefore, my strategy is to buy boldly at the support level, and if I am trapped, I will continue to buy at the next support until the bullets are used up. When liquidity is sufficient, such floating loss positions will eventually turn into profits. Of course, the target should also be appropriately selected. As for the probability of rebound at this position, I think it is also relatively large, as long as the US stock market stops falling.

Thank you for your attention and likes.