The Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, August 1. The market generally expects that it will remain on hold this month, but the statement will acknowledge "greater" progress in fighting inflation and hint at interest rate cuts soon by modifying the wording.

Here are 13 investment banks' outlooks for this month's FOMC meeting:

1. IG Group: It is expected that the interest rate will remain unchanged, with the first rate cut in September and a rate cut of more than 50BP before the end of the year; Powell will avoid making promises, be more optimistic about inflation and emphasize that the current risks are two-sided.

2. Bank of America: It is expected that interest rates will remain unchanged, and the statement will show that progress has been made in reducing inflation; Powell will indicate that attention to the dual mission can become more balanced.

3. Ernst & Young Group: It is expected that the interest rate will remain unchanged, and the wording of the third paragraph of the statement may be revised to "Once there is greater confidence that inflation will fall back to 2%, the target interest rate range should be lowered."

4. Goldman Sachs Group: It is expected that interest rates will remain unchanged, and the statement will emphasize the rise in unemployment, the Fed's more balanced focus on its dual mission, and recognition of greater progress in reducing inflation.

5. UBS Group: It is expected that interest rates will remain unchanged and will be cut by 25BP in September; the steady rise in the unemployment rate is consistent with below-trend economic growth, but the US economy can still achieve a soft landing.

6. ING: It is expected that the interest rate will remain unchanged, and the first rate cut will be carried out in September; Powell may maintain a hawkish attitude; it should be noted that the unemployment rate of 4.1% is already higher than the Fed's forecast.

7. Scotiabank: It is expected that interest rates will remain unchanged; the statement may be fine-tuned, and attention should be paid to the first paragraph's description of the progress in fighting inflation and whether the third paragraph shows greater confidence that inflation will fall back to 2%.

8. Deutsche Bank: It is expected that interest rates will remain unchanged; the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times before the end of the year, and then suspend interest rate cuts until September next year. The last two interest rate cuts will be in December next year and March 2026.

9. Morgan Stanley: It is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, opening the door to a rate cut in September; the statement will acknowledge that significant progress has been made in reducing inflation and that risks in the job market are rising; Powell will not commit to a significant interest rate cut.

10. Federal Reserve mouthpiece: It is expected that interest rates will remain unchanged, and the statement will acknowledge the recent improvement in inflation and a more balanced balance of risks, suggesting a greater likelihood of a rate cut in September, laying the foundation for Powell's press conference.

11. Bank of Montreal: It is expected that interest rates will remain unchanged. There are still doubts about how much effective information Powell will provide, but the Federal Reserve still has two opportunities, the meeting minutes and the Jackson Hole annual meeting, to send signals to the market.

Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data