“Looking forward to the endless frontier technology; seeing the future, leading the new era of investment research.”
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute:
Member Twitter ID:
Golden Egg Diary @jindanriji; Elk will not get lost @crypto_elk_; Forex Brother; Xibei @Asterismone;
The first round of WTR on-chain data subscription (OG) is officially launched!
Data provided: WTR’s self-developed market short-term, medium-term and long-term on-chain data, as well as some small currency data.
First round pricing: 399U/year. Payment supports on-chain and off-chain transfers.
Other notes: We have prepared a strategy package for OG users. The number of places in the strategy package is limited. The current strategy package is only open to the first round of OG users. Subscriptions can be added directly to the OG user group. For details, please see Twitter or WeChat official account.
Weekly Review
This week, from July 22 to July 29, the highest price of Sugar Orange was around $69,399 and the lowest was close to $63,456, with a fluctuation range of about 9.73%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chip transactions around 66,000, which will have certain support or pressure.
analyze:
59000–63000: about 1.28 million pieces;
64000–68000: about 1.32 million pieces;
The probability of not falling below 57,000-61,000 in the short term is 82%;
The probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 67%.
Important news
Economic News
A Reuters poll showed that 73 of 100 economists expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in 2024, 13 believed it would cut by 25 basis points, and 3 believed there would be no cut.
Strategist Donald Hagan said that drawing on the experience of the past 17 rate cut cycles, the S&P 500 rose an average of 14% in the year after the Fed's first rate cut, and investors pushed up corporate valuations after the Fed's first rate cut.
Analyst Joseph Capurso said that the U.S. second-quarter GDP estimate released on Thursday showed growth of only 1.6%, and the personal consumption expenditure inflation data for June released on Friday may be close to zero. Further weakening of the U.S. economy may increase the Federal Reserve's reason to cut interest rates this year.
Analyst Han Tan believes that if the upcoming GDP and PCE data paint a 'Goldilocks' scenario for the US economy, this will allow the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
Barclays strategists: Raise the S&P 500 target for fiscal 2024 from 5,300 to 5,600.
Encrypted ecological news
Citi upgraded Coinbase to buy from neutral due to improved regulatory risk and raised its price target to $345 from $260.
Wintermute expects BTC ETFs to accumulate around $32 billion by the end of the year.
Ki Young, founder of CryptoQuant, released data showing that on July 23, the inflow to ETH long-term holders’ addresses reached a record high of 714,000 ETH.
Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner of Dragonny, said that the opening trading volume of the ETH spot ETF was very strong, but the price of ETH did not change significantly because Grayscale's ETHE was mainly selling, which would offset a lot of the capital inflows on the first day.
Eric Balchunas said that the net inflow of ETH ETF is expected to reach US$5-6 billion in the first year (about 20% of the inflow of BTC ETF), among which BlackRock and Fidelity are the first choice for most assets.
BlackRock's BTC spot ETF IBIT has seen more inflows this year than the QQQ ETF tracked by Nasdaq. BlackRock's IBIT report showed that its BTC spot ETf inflows reached $526.7 million on July 22, the highest single-day inflow since March.
MtGox creditors said they had received compensation, and Grayscale's ETH outflow was obviously weaker than the outflow impact on the first day of listing of its Bitcoin spot ETF.
Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, said: Traditional asset management can no longer ignore cryptocurrency as an asset class and will see traditional markets actively embrace this field.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
Individual whale positions
ETH long net position
Short-term cost line
250% profit level for long-term participants
(The following figure shows the positions of various whales)
The position effects of major whales show that the market selling pressure has slowed down relatively.
Among them, the leading whales began to buy again and accumulate shares.
(The figure below shows ETH long-term net position)
ETH net position has not changed much. Although the ETF has been approved, the market has not changed much. It may still require a certain degree of opportunity.
(Short-term cost line in the figure below)
The cost line for short-term participants is around 65,500, which is a point of focus in the market.
If the market pulls back later, bottoms out again, etc., it will be a very important anchor point.
Generally this is a pause point in a bull market correction.
(The figure below shows the 250% profit level for long-term participants)
The 250% profit zone for long-term participants is around US$70,000.
This price level may form a short-term pressure and buffer zone.
Market risks can be watched around here, especially as the market gradually weakens.
Mid-term exploration
Stablecoin supply net position
Liquidity Supply
Positive sentiment on the Internet
Price structure analysis model
(Figure below: Stablecoin supply net position)
Stablecoins are still growing slowly, perhaps because the current trend of purchasing power growth has not slowed down.
(Figure below shows liquidity supply)
There will be a certain amount of liquidity supply in the near future when the market is at a low point of correction.
It is possible that when the market experiences a continuous decline, the increase in liquidity supply will determine the balance between supply and demand, as well as the anti-fall effect.
(Figure below: Network sentiment positivity)
Network sentiment shows signs of slowing slightly, which may lead to greater volatility in price ranges.
Because the current market trend has slowed down to a certain extent, but combined with the increase in the supply of stablecoins, new buyers may enter the market.
(The figure below shows the price structure analysis model)
According to the light brown line segment shown in the figure, which is the inventory top, the price is around 70,500, which is the current stage resistance level.
If the supply of stablecoins continues to increase, this price level may be broken.
Otherwise, based on the premium calculation, 71,000-73,000 may be a price that is difficult to break through.
At the same time, the price of 250% profit for long-term chips - 70,700 is also a position that needs attention. There may be a large-scale selling of long-term chips.
Short-term observation
Derivatives Risk Factor
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivatives Trading Volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and loss transfer
New addresses and active addresses
Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange
Net position of the Auntie Exchange
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net positions
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives Rating: The risk factor is in the green zone. Derivatives have low risk.
(The figure below shows the risk factor of derivatives)
This week, the risk factors of BTC and ETH diverged, which directly manifested in that ETH still had potential for short squeeze, but BTC's risk factor had reached the red zone, and a greater probability of volatile market conditions was expected.
(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)
Options trading volume has dropped significantly and the put option ratio is at a low level.
(Figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives trading volumes were at low levels.
(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)
There has been a massive drop in implied volatility.
Emotional state rating: Neutral
(The following figure shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
The positive sentiment in the market (blue line) has not continued to increase, and the current positive sentiment has begun to decline slightly. In addition, compared with the previous sharp rises in the market, the growth rate and volume of the positive sentiment in the market this time are relatively low.
(Figure below shows newly added addresses and active addresses)
New and active addresses are at low levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC has a large amount of accumulated inflows, and ETH has accumulated outflows.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
Although there is a small outflow of BTC at present, the large amount of chips that previously flowed into the exchange have not yet been fully digested.
(The following figure shows the net position of E-Tai Exchange)
ETH exchange net positions are in an outflow accumulation state.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
There is no high-weight selling pressure at present.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has recovered slightly, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has increased significantly.
(Figure below shows the global purchasing power status)
This week, the purchasing power of the Americas is still positive, but after the stimulus of the news, the purchasing power has not continued to increase significantly. Currently, only a small amount of purchasing power remains in the United States and Europe, and the purchasing power of Asia is still being lost.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDC exchanges)
USDC's net position is still accumulating in large quantities on exchanges.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 60,000; there is a willingness to sell at 70,000.
(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 60,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70,000~74,000.
(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to buy at prices around 60,000 and 62,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70,000~74,000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70,000~74,000.
This week’s summary:
Summary of news:
After digesting the negatives such as MtGox and ETH spot ETF and Germany’s sales;
The Federal Reserve will hold its interest rate meeting on July 30-31. There is a high probability that Powell will take a dovish stance at this meeting, which may pave the way for September.
If we follow the US stock market, there should be no increase in price.
In the next year, the spot ETH ETF will receive up to US$4 billion in inflows from investors. Driven by these inflows, the price of ETH will increase by more than 20% in the next 12 months.
The short-term Grayscale lifting of the ban on ETH is only temporary, just like BTC, which fell at the beginning and then rose from 40,000 to more than 70,000 US dollars; the inflow of ETH is not as good as BTC, but it will be more or less similar.
On-chain long-term insights:
The major whales have slowed down their selling, and the largest group of whales has started buying;
ETH net position has not changed much. Although the ETF has been approved, the market demand has not reached a critical point.
The short-term cost is around 65,500, which is the key point. The short-term cost is generally one of the bottom areas of the bull market correction;
The 250% profit zone for long-term players is shown at around $70,000, which may be one of the pressure stages.
Market setting:
The market is beginning to ease, but is facing new challenges.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
Stablecoins still show signs of continued growth;
The supply of liquidity has temporarily stopped rising;
The slowdown in online sentiment may bring about a certain amplitude;
70500 is the top of the stock, 70700 is the high multiple profit of long-term chips;
Market setting:
Fluctuation, growth
As market expectations rise, the supply of stablecoins is increasing, and sentiment in the market is slowing down, there may be larger fluctuations.
On-chain short-term observations:
The risk factor is in the green area and the risk is low.
The number of newly added active addresses is relatively low.
Market sentiment status rating: Neutral.
The overall net position of the exchange shows that there is a large accumulation of BTC inflows and ETH outflows.
Global purchasing power has recovered slightly, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has increased significantly.
Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at the 60,000 price level, and a willingness to sell at the 70,000 price level.
The probability that it will not fall below 57,000-61,000 in the short term is 82%; the probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 67%.
Market setting:
Driven by last week's news, the market's positive sentiment has not continued to increase. In the short term, if market purchasing power does not increase further this week, the probability of a large-scale and sustained short squeeze is low, and we still need to pay attention to a small correction.
risk warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
Welcome to follow us!
w: Endless Frontier WTR
