July 29, 2024 Grandpa checks in
Bitcoin is trying to hit the historical high. We know that the highest point of Bitcoin is just over 73,000. The daily level has hit 72,000 four times and all failed. At present, the probability of breaking through 70,000 is very high, but whether it can break through the pressure zone of 73,000 remains to be seen. According to historical experience, the probability of failure of such a breakthrough that has been accumulated for too long is high, and it is likely to evolve into another top market, so this position still needs attention.
In fact, the current internal and external environment does not support the breakthrough of the big cake. First of all, from a macro perspective, everyone thinks that the interest rate cut in September is a big positive, but we see that the performance of the US stock market has gone through a wave of daily adjustments in the past half month, and the Nasdaq has fallen from 18671 to 17357 points. In my opinion, this is a signal that some funds are avoiding the uncertainty in the future in advance. According to the data analysis I have done before, the moment the interest rate cut occurs will not immediately form a positive capital side. Generally, it will take 3-6 months for it to gradually take effect on the market. Therefore, it is full of uncertainty, which can also explain why funds have to leave the market in advance.
There have been some positive news released recently in the internal environment, such as the approval of Ethereum ETF, Trump's support for encryption, etc. These are also the key to the market returning to around 70,000. However, since the positive news release is almost the same, especially these positive news cannot bring a large amount of funds into the market for a certain period of time, the sustainability of the market is destined to be not too strong. The lack of funds in the market can also be seen from the differentiation of the market sectors. The big cake is about to break the historical high, and most of the cottages are still a doubling away from the high point in March. This time the market is still only mainstream.
In terms of specific operations, there is not much that can be done. After all, the previous wave of bottom-fishing has reduced the position. If I want to reduce it again, I can only sell Bitcoin. But to be honest, my mainstream configuration is Ethereum, and I don’t want to move the bottom of Bitcoin. Some people have similar configurations and can consider selling at the pressure point. Although I am not optimistic about Bitcoin’s new high, I still expect BTC to soar and drive the market to take off. After all, there are still some copycat configurations that have not reached the right price, and the trading sentiment in the circle is very weak now. It needs a big breakthrough to drive it, so that there will be better opportunities to make money.
Thank you for your attention and likes.
