The difference between the attitude of the cryptocurrency community and mainstream polls
Polymarket does not claim that its betting pool is equivalent to national polls, but it does not shy away from the comparison. When announcing that famous statistician and FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver joined the company's advisory board, Polymarket said that its forecasts have become a trusted source of real-time information before the 2024 election.
In contrast, according to the Reuters and Ipsos polls, Harris and Trump are very close in support. The nationwide survey was conducted from July 22 to 23, and the sample included 1,241 American adults. 4% of them are registered Democrats, which may affect the results of the survey, but Ipsos said they have ways to deal with this problem.
An Ipsos Public Affairs spokesperson provided Decrypt with the following explanation: "That's why we weighted the data to align the survey sample with the population. The weighted sample, which is what we use in the data we publish, is 42% Republicans, 40% Democrats, and 18% independents/others/refuse to answer."
While the results of this poll may surprise some, it is consistent with the results of a July 15-16 poll, which showed that Harris and Trump each had 44% support. It is worth noting that in the 2016 and 2020 elections, U.S. election polls were often wrong.
Overall, while Harris leads Trump in traditional polls, the cryptocurrency community clearly lacks support for her. As the election approaches, this difference could have a significant impact on the election.
