Author: Ciaran Lyons, CoinTelegraph; Translated by: Tao Zhu, Golden Finance
A measure of retail interest in Bitcoin just fell to a three-year low, and cryptocurrency analysts say a rebound is needed before the “real bull run” can begin.
“Bitcoin retail investor demand is at its lowest level in 3 years,” CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju wrote in a July 18 X post, basing his claim on the average monthly change in retail investor demand for Bitcoin — which has fallen to below negative 15% over the past 30 days.
“It is measured by the change in total transfer volume of transactions below $10,000 over a 30-day period,” Ju explained.
Source: Ki Young Ju
While institutions typically execute larger Bitcoin trades, many analysts and traders believe that a major rally in Bitcoin’s price will only begin if there is a surge in retail investor interest.
“A true bull run usually starts with massive buying volumes driven by retail investors,” CryptoQuant contributor Minkyu Woo explained, suggesting that an increase in retail investors typically boosts market sentiment.
“We haven’t seen this much volume from retail investors,” he added.
However, in April this year, VanEck CEO Jan van Eck noted that most inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could come from retail investors.
"I'm surprised, but I don't think it's traditional investors yet. I still think 90% of the flows are from retail investors," van Eck said on April 11.
According to Farside, on July 17, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows fell 87% from the previous day, with 11 tracking products totaling $53.3 million.
Bitcoin is up 12.36% over the past seven days. Source: CoinMarketCap
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is struggling to hold onto a key support level that traders believe is essential before moving into the next price range.
On July 17, Bitcoin ended a 27-day streak of trading below $65,000, reaching $65,686 before falling back to $63,521. Since then, Bitcoin has yet to break above this level.
As of the time of publishing, Bitcoin is trading at $63,975, according to CoinMarketCap.
Meanwhile, search interest for the term “Bitcoin,” tracked over the past 12 months, has fallen 44% to 43 in the three months since the halving, and is down nearly 57% since March 13, when Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $73,679, according to Google data.
The metric typically spikes during major Bitcoin events and tends to provide insight into overall retail investor interest.
