This week, we will continue to pay attention to the actual selling situation in Mentougou. If it can be released to the market slowly and orderly, the existing rebound is expected to be maintained. Another positive factor that may maintain the rebound is that the consensus on interest rate cuts will be further strengthened after the United States releases the June CPI data, which is conducive to the inflow of external funds into the crypto market.
There are two positive news next week: ETH ETF may be launched and Trump will attend the BTC conference to give a speech.
The current risk mainly lies in Mentougou. Mentougou has 140,000 BTC, which will be gradually distributed over time. Every large transfer in the wallet will bring a small panic to BTC.
Starting from yesterday, every pullback is the best time to buy, because the trend of the second half of the year has arrived. In the face of the trend, no matter how much negative news there is, it will be short-lived and will not change the direction of the market.
At the 4-hour level, the market is mainly in shock and adjustment, and there is nothing to analyze.
What do you think about the market in the future? Will the market continue to fall?
Many people say that the negative factors have basically been exhausted in this wave, and we will enjoy the main upward trend for the next 3-4 months.
Personally, I don’t think it’s that fast yet, and we still have to be prepared to continue suffering for the next 3 months.
Currently, the bitcoin price has just hit the strong cross pressure point of MA120 and MA144. It has not stood firm. I estimate that it will continue to consolidate here for a while.
It is not easy to get out of a sharp drop or rise, but the shock and consolidation in the middle is the easiest to wash out the unsteady people. It will constantly hone a person's mind. If you don't get out during a sharp rise, it will give you a heavy blow. Then the consolidation process seems to tell you that there will be a big rise and also seems to tell you that there will be a big fall.
In short, the reason why volatility can easily throw people out is because you are obsessed with short-term predictions, and the short-term rise and fall in volatility is random. You will often make mistakes in judgment, and if you make too many mistakes, you will naturally doubt yourself.
Give up short-term predictions. As long as the overall system framework configuration is correct, let any short-term situation happen naturally.
The big bull is still behind. During the continued consolidation in the next few months, if you align your track well and continue to accumulate chips, you will most likely be rewarded in the future.
The bull market is about to reach the stage of altcoin explosion:
1. Healthy market correction
No currency can continue to rise without a pullback. Adjustments are healthy and lay the foundation for building a strong bull market. In each cycle, BTC will pull back to its previous historical high several times before breaking through strongly.
Traditional investors sell and new investors buy.
In this process, BTC is transferred from weak hands to strong hands. This is a very bullish signal! Investors who bought Bitcoin in the 50,000 and 60,000 range will not sell at 7.3w, they will hold their BTC for longer, aiming to earn double profits.
Recently, whales have been buying in large quantities!
In July, whales bought massive amounts of BTC at the fastest rate since April 2023, and we’re only mid-month!
2. Market selling pressure is relieved:
The market works very simply, the price of an asset is determined by supply and demand.
More buyers than sellers? → Prices go up.
More people are selling than buying? → Prices fall.
BTC faces huge selling pressure in Q2
Bitcoin mining company.
Grayscale and BTC ETF.
German government.
Mt. Gox fears heightened uncertainty.
These events together led to selling pressure on BTC, while altcoins followed Bitcoin's trend.
On the bright side, selling pressure is easing:
Grayscale's sell-off slowed significantly.
The German government already has no BTC.
The sell-off by Bitcoin mining companies is almost complete.
Mt. Gox will slowly refund creditors during the third quarter, rather than all at once as many had expected.
In the third quarter, there will still be some selling pressure (Mentougou)
But not as much as in Q2, once the market absorbs these BTC and the sellers run out, the price will stabilize.
But simply easing the selling pressure is not enough to push up the price of the currency, and new funds from the market are needed!
Future buying power:
US election
Rate cuts
Bankrupt exchange FTX refunds customers
The U.S. market is a major player in the crypto industry, so the dynamics of the U.S. market and changes in crypto policies can have a significant impact on the entire industry.
Cryptocurrency has become a key issue in the US presidential election.
Trump called himself the "Crypto President", and the Biden administration quickly adjusted its anti-crypto stance after seeing the success of Trump's pro-crypto stance. Both parties are vying for the support of crypto voters, and the prospects are promising!
The U.S. election will be held in November 2024. As the election day approaches, the two parties will become more intense in their efforts to win the support of crypto voters. This will increase the awareness of cryptocurrencies among all U.S. citizens and people around the world who are paying attention to the election. Know.
They will attract more ordinary investors to enter the market.
Rate cuts = higher risk asset prices
After each rate cut, holding cash in a bank account becomes less attractive because the bank's annual interest will decrease, and the rich will readjust their portfolios and increase investments in risky assets (including cryptocurrencies), which will increase liquidity in the risky market currency circle.
Another special factor will significantly increase buying power in Q4: FTX will start refunding customers in Q4!
In the fourth quarter, FTX will distribute $16 billion to its customers.
Why is this good?
Since most FTX users are early investors in cryptocurrencies, it is likely that much of the funds will flow back into the crypto industry.
This could be buying power.
To summarize, selling pressure eased in the third quarter and buying increased in the fourth quarter, so just a little more patience and altcoin prices will surge higher and higher.
The only question is: can you make it to Q4?
