After more than 4 months of volatility and great pain in the market, the overall excitement fermented in the crypto market after the "Trump's July 16 assassination" incident, causing a sharp rise in the crypto market. The direction of the crypto market was reversed instantly!
The first rate cut is coming soon, whether it is in September or later, at least the voice has been heard, and the US election and the Bitcoin crash in Germany are over (settlement time: 3.5 weeks)
At present, the ETF of ETH has not been determined, but I am sure that the real accelerated rebound has not yet started. Of course, the demand for these ETFs remains to be seen. If there is no large volume, then you have to be careful after the rise, because the market makers and institutions will definitely dump the market.
At the end of the rally we may make another local high for a while. Then, during the New Year (2025), we will calm down, a new president will take office, and rate cuts have begun, but they are no longer as exciting.
Because this is something that everyone has already expected!
If economic data starts to decline and unemployment starts to rise further, there could be some recession concerns. The market is already late in the cycle at this point and altcoins could outperform Bitcoin while it moves sideways.
Therefore, at this stage, we must remember to pay attention to several very strong king altcoins in the entire bull market!
The wealth effect is huge, people are willing to take risks and seek yield and return. This is often where our craziest concepts and projects emerge.
If you are active and participate in these projects early, you will definitely get a lot of benefits. In the second half of 2025, the last rebound will begin according to the 4-year cycle. Blind guess: This is the case at the end of almost every bull market!
Every cycle, people look for reasons why the 4 year cycle doesn’t work, but so far, it’s one of the few things that consistently works.
If the price starts moving vertically upward from here and does not stop until the end of the year, then I could see a case for a left-shift cycle. But I doubt that will happen, so I will stick with what has worked in the past.
The recent rally is driven by overall greed and the return of retail sales. The real election rally is just a cover, and the narrative is a kind of speculation in finance; all kinds of narratives revolve around only one goal: the dealer wants to pull the market! The future bull market is expected to have several interest rate cuts and resume some form of money printing, which will increase the money supply again.
The overall environment is great, but it's also time to really start taking profits because this trend will never last. By this time, you may be tired of all the good news and stories you can hear. The same is true for the macro side.
Remember, markets are forward-looking.
For example, in the last cycle, stocks and cryptocurrencies peaked a few months before rate cuts began and liquidity dried up. What price peaks is always a big question. I like to focus more on how a certain price is reached and determine the market state (massive excitement, etc.) to judge when a larger expansion should begin.
For example, the market sentiment when Bitcoin breaks the new high of 69,000. After breaking the new high, we look for a new high. Where is the new high? Oh, okay! 80,000? 90,000? Even 100,000? 300,000? When these numbers are released, we need to listen to the voice of the market, collect clues from the market, and guide the price to a relatively close number as much as possible. Everyone hopes that the price will be as high as possible, but the actual situation may be that once one domino falls, all the dominoes fall, and the spread of this emotion will cause more panic!
Summary: Keep a cool head, don’t be too pessimistic, and don’t be too optimistic. Trade with the trend, and take profits as long as you think it is good for you. When others are crazy, you will make more profits.
Good luck !
