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#以太坊ETF批准预期 #TON #门头沟 #降息 #xrp
🔹Reviews of Cognitive Society
The highest point of Bitcoin's rebound on July 16, 63,300, is far from the pressure point of 66,000 in yesterday's article.
Bitcoin's highest rebound point of 63,300 on July 15 is close to the pressure point of 64,000 in yesterday's article
Bitcoin's highest rebound point on July 14 was 60,300, which is consistent with the pressure point of 60,000 in yesterday's article.
The negative impact of Mentougou directly interrupted the strong rebound of Bitcoin. It is a big negative in the short term, but a great positive in the long term. The negative impact of Mentougou has shrouded the cryptocurrency circle for ten years, and it will be faced sooner or later.
Mt.Gox Trustee: Today, BTC and Bitcoin Cash have been repaid to some creditors through designated exchanges
Cognition Society believes that normally the main selling pressure in Mentougou is about one month, and these Bitcoin selling orders can be completely digested in about three months, because those who want to sell have sold in three months, and those who don’t want to sell may not be in a hurry.
Trump's positive news should be almost over. Unless Trump is officially elected as the US president, it will be difficult to get better stimulus in the short term. The positive news that the crypto industry is looking forward to is Ethereum spot ETF trading, interest rate cuts in September or November, and FTX's 10 billion compensation in December. These three positive news will only be five months at the latest, so there will definitely be a super rebound in the next five months.
Be patient and wait
Every time Bitcoin plummets, the first thing I consider is still Ethereum. Cognitive Society is also afraid of copycats. The volatility is too exaggerated. The ten-fold drop is really not something that ordinary people can bear. Therefore, the heavy position is still Ethereum, followed by UNI link NEAR Bitcoin.
The short-term contradiction is the short squeeze of Bitcoin and the selling pressure of Mentougou. If it hits 73,000 at a high speed and then plummets, especially in the middle of the night, it will be really exciting. After all, there are billions of short orders near 73,000 that have been blown up, and the sharp drop will make it too late for Mentougou to sell.
But based on a one-month time dimension, 65,000 to 67,000 should not hold steady, because it is impossible to slowly sell the 90,000 bitcoins in Mentougou at a high price.
Although the time of Ethereum spot ETF is constantly postponed, the normal trading of Ethereum spot ETF is usually in July or August. Cognition Society believes that after the Ethereum spot ETF is approved, the cottage should have a big rebound. Therefore, the cottage that is trapped will wait for a big rebound before reducing, unless it rebounds to near the cost recently.
I dare not say where the lowest point is, but whether it is the Ethereum spot ETF or the lower US interest rate cut, it is relatively certain that it is positive. Wait a while, and things will get better slowly.
🔹The K-line spirit of cognitive society
Many new fans feel that the articles of Cognition Society do not have direct bullish or bearish opinions, which affects the chances of making money by playing contracts. The principle of Cognition Society is to play more spot in a bull market. We do not over-judge the rise and fall of short-term prices. This is not Tai Chi, but Cognition Society has its own principles.
Cognitive Society does not know when Bitcoin will plummet, but we remind ourselves that every time Bitcoin plummets, it is an opportunity. We enter the market when Bitcoin plummets and deploy our favorite Ethereum UNI and hot altcoins.
Therefore, if you hold 8 layers of positions, you should control your positions to around 7 layers when Bitcoin accelerates its rise. In the bull market, don't fantasize about shorting your positions every time Bitcoin plummets.
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CME Fed Watch: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 0%
According to CME Fed Watch, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 91.2%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 8.8%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 85.7%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 13.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut is 0.5%.
📍Interpretation of Cognition Society: If there is no problem with the employment data, there is a high probability of a rate cut in September.
Source: US SEC has given preliminary approval to at least three ETH ETF issuers
Three sources said that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has given preliminary approval to at least three of the eight asset management companies to launch ETH ETF trading, which will begin trading next Tuesday. The final approval depends on whether the applicant can submit final issuance documents to the regulator before the end of this week.
In addition, one of the sources said that all eight companies are expected to launch ETH ETFs at the same time. A spokesman for the SEC said the agency does not comment on individual filings. (Reuters)
📍Cognition Society Interpretation: Ethereum spot ETF trading around August is expected.
Citi: Ethereum spot ETF net inflows in the first six months were between $4.7 billion and $5.4 billion
📍Cognition Society Interpretation: Note that Grayscale has 1 million ethers to sell, and the net inflow is not much at the beginning.
Today, three whales injected $278.7 million USDT into the crypto market
Lookonchain data shows that three whales injected $278.7 million USDT into the crypto market today, including:
1. Cumberland withdrew another $80 million USDT from Tether Treasury to Kraken, Coinbase and OKX after two months;
2. Address TQef1n...k32t withdrew $111.7 million USDT from Tether Treasury and deposited it into Kraken;
3. Address TQjqZ5...42m8 withdrew $87 million USDT from Tether Treasury and deposited it into Binance.
📍Interpretation of Cognition Society: Incremental funds are the fundamental driving force for growth.
🔹Summary: Bitcoin rebounded strongly to 65,000 and 67,000, and there is a high probability of a pullback. Every plunge in Bitcoin is an opportunity for Ethereum to enter the market
There is no destructive negative news. Bitcoin 56600 is likely to be the bottom area of the third historical bottoming out;
May 2024 is the mid-term of the bull market for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Every plunge is an opportunity. Long-term K-line research focuses on Ethereum UNI OP NEAR BLUR and Link Bread;
🔹Short-term data
Disclaimer: The K-line data analysis provided by Cognitive Society is based on data analysis, does not represent any position, and does not confiscate any project party a penny.
🏷Bitcoin
Support: 62800 61800
Pressure level: 64500 66000
🏷Ethereum
It's okay to go to 3500, after all, there is still a gap of 15 points from the highest point
If the Ethereum spot ETF is traded in August, there is still one month left
Focus for the next six months
A sharp drop in Ethereum is an opportunity to enter the market
Deploying Ethereum is the core strategy.
Pressure level: 3450 3500
Support: 3370 3300
🏷LINK
Start grinding the top 15 pressure points
Can fully circulated value coins take off in the future market, especially after the Ethereum spot ETF is approved?
New value, new RWA leader, the plunge can be configured, cognitive society 22 23 years 5 layout LINK
🏷 him
8.8 battle is too weak
Pressure level: 8.5 8.8
Support: 7.9 7.7
🏷️BLUR
Too cowardly to reach 0.2
🏷OP
Stuck at 1.92
Cognition Society was the only one who reminded us to upgrade Cancun when the OP bottom was around 1.3.
Pressure level: 1.85 2
Support level: 1.7 1.6
🏷️
Cognitive Society thinks that ENS TON should be replaced by Ethereum at this time
🏷ARB
0.75 can hold the market for a month, 0.85 is the strong pressure point
🏷CRV
The fourth time 0.3 card owner
0.26 0.23 support level
🏷️UN
Surpassed expectations rebound 2.5
🏷️TREES
0.0108 is the super strong pressure point
🏷️WIF
Because the Binance coin is positive for 2.3
2.4 2.6 is a strong pressure point
🏷1000SATS
Strong sprint 0.003 pressure level
When 1000SATS rebounds to near the cost, reduce the position, and reduce the proportion of long-term positions after reducing the position. The fluctuation is too large and most people cannot bear it.
🏷1000RATS
0.11 0.15 pressure level
1000RATS rebounds to near cost and reduces positions. After reducing positions, reduce the proportion of long-term positions. The fluctuation is too large and most people cannot bear it.
🏷NEAR
Surge
Note that NEAR is a bit weak, don’t touch it unless it is at a high position
Cognitive Society is the most optimistic about NEAR on the planet. NEAR1 has been updating frantically. Now NEAR is ranked behind in the article because it has risen too much. Maybe NEAR may reach 40 in the future, and there is not much room for growth.
When the price of NEAR23 is around 1, Cognition Society is the only one that reminds you to invest regularly when the price is around 1.3 to 1.
Pressure level: 6.2 6.5
Support level: 6 5.8
🏷️YUP
It hit 0.91, but 1 is a strong pressure point
🏷BNB
As expected, I was trapped at 590
Can you believe it?
On Earth, when BNB is around 200, Cognition Society exclusively reminds you to invest in BNB between 210 and 180
Support Levels:
Pressure level: 580 590
Others, wait for more updates
🔹Understanding attitude towards making money
Cognitive Society does not like hindsight
I don’t like those KOLs who claim that they can make a lot of money.
If someone in the cryptocurrency circle could profit from the rise and fall of every coin
Leverage is not about making 10 billion a year
But the second largest exchange on earth saw the market makers manipulate the market, and it only lost billions and went bankrupt.
Form your own trading system and make money within your own cognitive scope. Don't fantasize about making money from every daily rise and fall, let alone the rise and fall of every coin. This person does not exist on the earth, nor does this kind of organization. If such an organization existed, FTX, the exchange that looks after the main backstage, would not have gone bankrupt.
Desire and ability are not equal
The heart can never be at peace
How can you hold on to the coins if you are not calm inside?
Many people always like to rely on other people's promises and guarantees to hold on to their coins when the market crashes.
Banks are going bankrupt. Even some big countries’ fiat currencies are going bankrupt. Evergrande and Zhongzhi Group are bankrupt with tens of trillions of dollars.
Do you think people who promise returns can be trusted in such a high-risk place like the crypto industry?
The charlatan is just talking nonsense. As for the real crash and bear market, have you ever seen those people who advocate the bull market every day?
