1.QCP: Maintain medium-term bullish view
QCP Capital said that the failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump at the beginning of the weekend triggered a rebound in cryptocurrency prices. Coinbase made large programmatic purchases of BTC between 5am and 1pm SST. The entire move seems to be due to the market pricing in Trump's victory in the upcoming election, as he publicly supports cryptocurrencies. Given the continued large demand for BTC spot ETF inflows and the upcoming launch of ETH spot ETF as a catalyst, we maintain a medium-term bullish view.
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2. Trump promises to speak at Bitcoin 2024
Bitcoin Magazine CEO David Bailey said that he had just communicated with the Trump team and that Trump was in good spirits and still promised to give a speech in person at the Bitcoin 2024 conference. The Bitcoin 2024 conference will be held in Nashville, Tennessee, from July 25 to 27. Coinbase's recent research shows that 50 million adults in the United States hold cryptocurrencies.
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3. Bitrace: The address where 29.62 million USDT was frozen is related to the guarantee business of Cambodia Huiwang Group
On July 13, the Tron address TNVaKW was frozen by Tether for more than 29.62 million USDT. According to the analysis of blockchain data analysis company Bitrace, the address was confirmed to be the guarantee-related business address used by Cambodia Huiwang Group on July 9. The reason for the freeze may be related to assisting in the laundering of funds for criminal activities such as fraud and theft. This address was the hot wallet address used by Huiwang Payment on that day. The US$35 million in the Japanese DMM Bitcoin hacker attack has been laundered here. Due to the similarity of money laundering methods and off-chain indicators, it is suspected that Lazarus Group is the mastermind behind the attack.
4. Russia considers allowing major local licensed exchanges to provide digital currency trading services
The Russian Ministry of Finance proposed that licensed exchanges such as the Moscow Exchange and the St. Petersburg Exchange be allowed to provide digital currency trading services to certain qualified investors. Anatoly Aksakov, chairman of the State Duma Financial Markets Committee, believes that Russia's largest exchanges are ready to handle cryptocurrency transactions, emphasizing that once the legal conditions are established, exchanges should be able to start cryptocurrency trading immediately without any problems. In addition, the State Duma is considering a bill authorizing the central bank to create an experimental cryptocurrency platform for international settlements starting September 1.
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5. South Korea may postpone cryptocurrency taxation again until January 2028
The South Korean government and ruling party are considering postponing the taxation of cryptocurrency investment gains from January 2025 to January 2028. The Ministry of Finance said it has not made a final decision and expects to release next year's tax law amendments by the end of this month. Previously, cryptocurrency capital gains tax has been postponed twice, mainly due to concerns about the burden on crypto investors and market confusion.
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6. Wu said this week's macroeconomic indicators and analysis: speeches by Fed officials, ECB interest rate decisions, and the Fed's Beige Book on economic conditions
Summary
Last week, the US CPI for June was lower than expected. Powell said that the central bank is paying more attention to when to cut interest rates, and the market is optimistically betting on a rate cut in September. This week, the focus will be on the ECB's interest rate decision, Powell and other senior Fed officials' collective speeches, and the Fed's Beige Book on economic conditions.
Last week review
●In his speech to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday morning, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that rising inflation is not the only risk we face. The economy has made significant progress in reducing inflation and the job market looks as strong as before the epidemic, but there is no Overheating; regarding interest rate cuts, we will make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis; now that inflation has returned to decline and the labor market is showing signs of cooling, the central bank is paying more attention to when to cut interest rates; recent inflation data shows further small progress, more good data This will enhance our confidence that inflation will continue to move towards 2%. (WSJ)
●Fed Chairman Powell attended the House Financial Services Committee meeting and said that he was not ready to declare victory over inflation, and the end point of quantitative tightening was still uncertain. He revealed that the Fed would not wait until inflation fully recovered to 2% before cutting interest rates, nor would it do so because of the election results.
●China’s CPI annual rate in June was announced at 0.2%, the forecast was 0.40%, and the previous value was 0.30%.
●The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the interest rate unchanged at 5.5%, in line with market expectations and marking the eighth consecutive time that the interest rate was kept unchanged.
●The year-on-year growth rate of US CPI in June fell further to 3% from 3.3% in the previous month, lower than the expected 3.1%.
●The annual rate of PPI in the United States in June was 2.6%, in line with expectations of 2.30% and the previous value of 2.20%.
●The initial forecast for the US one-year inflation rate in July was 2.9%, the expected value was 2.90%, and the previous value was 3.00%.
●The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in July was 66, an eight-month low, lower than the expected 68.5 and the previous reading in June was 68.2.
This week's key events & indicators
July 16
●Federal Reserve Chairman Powell holds a dialogue with Carlyle Group Co-Executive Chairman David Rubenstein (00:30)
●2024 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly attended a meeting themed "Bulls, Bears, and Bankers" (04:35)
July 17
●Federal Reserve Board Governor Kugler delivered a speech (02:45)
●2024 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivered a speech (21:00)
●Fed Board Governor Waller speaks on economic outlook (21:35)
July 18
●The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditions (02:00)
●ECB announces interest rate decision (20:15)
July 19
●2024 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly participated in a fireside chat (06:05)
●Federal Reserve Board Governor Bowman delivered a speech (07:30)
●FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams delivered a speech on monetary policy (22:40)
