The BTC rate breaks through the level of $63,000, breaking the maximum target EMA of the 50 day TF from our yesterday’s forecast.
The price has broken not only this very important moving average, but also two important horizontal levels:
- volume level $62,987,
- Fibonacci level 0.5 of the entire fall from June 7 to July 5 (rate $62,807).
An abnormally low Fear and Greed Index, comparable to the FTX scam period, has shown itself. Almost +12% growth in four days. In addition to the assassination attempt on Trump, the reason was rumors that China could allegedly lift the ban on cryptocurrencies by the fourth quarter of 2024. And these rumors are picked up and commented on by figures like Galaxy Digital head Mike Novogratz in an “if this is true” style.
Technically, as long as the price is above these three levels of support, or above at least above the EMA of the 50 day TF (currently $62,350), the scenario of a true reversal is valid, not a rebound. As we wrote many times last week.
The daily MACD continues to work out the bullish crossing of the signal line, the RSI has broken through the level of 50 and is now at 56, but we need to wait for the closing of the daily candle and, in general, a retest of the breakdown of this indicator level. The daily candlestick structure suggests continued growth until July 17-19.
What is particularly confusing is the large gap on the BTC futures chart on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The range is almost $3,000 (!), $57,880-60,840.
BUT if growth continues in the coming days and the volume level of $65,892 is broken through, the closing of this gap may be delayed.
By the way, on the CME there is a gap not only on hourly TFs, but also on the daily ones. And in the same range. And the gaps of older TFs are more likely to close in the near future. Plus on the CME the price has just reached the EMA test of the 50 day TF.
This is another argument that the gap will close soon. Before the true breakdown of the EMA 50 day TF.
It is better for the bulls, however, for this gap to be closed in the near future. This would make it possible to unload the indicators a little, shave off some of the long players’ shoulders, form a P&P and continue healthy growth (if, of course, after the gap is closed, buyers show themselves).
It’s too early to talk about PGIP, but if it is formed with a correction plus or minus from the current ones, its target will be around the volume level of $72,964. This is the last volume level up before the ATH.
In general, this increase since July 5 is not nearly as obvious as the increase since May 1-2. Then it was possible to very clearly identify the reversal formation, which brought about +27% growth. This time the picture is more complicated. There are a lot of deceptive movements and even now we may well see a bull trap and a new local lay. But the sentiment of the crowd is such that for every word about a growth scenario or at least conditions for growth, they are ready to be crucified. And this is a good argument for growth. The liquidity of the bears at the top is long overdue.
SUMMARY - as long as the price is above the EMA of the 50 day TF and, moreover, above the volume level of $62,987 and the 0.5 Fibonacci level (rate of $62,807) - the priority is growth up to the new ATH. BUT the situation can quickly change if on the daily TF we close below the EMA of the 50 day TF.
