1. QCP Capital: Large hedge funds bet that BTC will rise to $100,000 by the end of the year
QCP Capital Analysis pointed out that the market has stabilized this week, with BTC and ETH rebounding to $58,000 and $3,100 respectively. The reasons for the rebound include positive macroeconomic sentiment, slowing inflation, the market expecting a 95% chance of a rate cut in September, and the German government's completion of the sale of 50,000 BTC, and the spot price remained strong. At the same time, spot ETFs have strong demand, with net inflows of about $1 billion this week. Despite the panic in market sentiment, large hedge funds are actively buying BTC December and March next year call options, with a target price of $100-120k.
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2. The total net inflow of US Bitcoin spot ETF yesterday was US$310 million, and the net inflow continued for 6 consecutive days.
Yesterday (July 12, EST), the total net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs was $310 million. Yesterday, Grayscale ETF GBTC had a single-day net inflow of $23.0081 million. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the largest single-day net inflow yesterday was BlackRock ETF IBIT, with a single-day net inflow of $120 million, followed by Fidelity ETF FBTC, with a single-day net inflow of $115 million.
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3.Coinbase: It is hard to judge whether the launch of ETH ETF is bullish or bearish
Coinbase Weekly noted that macro data has given plenty of evidence that the U.S. economy has slowed (ISM manufacturing, unemployment, domestic demand, etc.). The economy is likely to peak in the second quarter of 2024 - one of the reasons we believe the Fed will cut interest rates starting September 18. Rate cuts could be bad for the market if there are concerns about a larger economic slowdown. If the U.S. economy falls into a recession, retail investors may be reluctant to enter new stock or cryptocurrency positions. Price action is expected to remain volatile in the third quarter of 2024 as the cryptocurrency market still lacks a strong narrative. The market cannot decide whether potential spot ETH ETF flows are bullish or bearish, and these flows take time to materialize.
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4. Issuers such as BlackRock BUIDL and Ondo are interested in participating in MakerDAO’s $1 billion treasury bond tokenization plan
MakerDAO announced that it will invest $1 billion in tokenized U.S. Treasury products through an open competition. Top issuers including BlackRock's BUIDL, Superstate, and Ondo Finance have indicated that they will participate in this proposal. The investment plan aims to allocate funds through the "Spark Tokenization Grand Prix" public competition, which will open for applications on August 12. This marks a major adjustment to MakerDAO's reserve strategy.
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5. The German government no longer holds any BTC, and all BTC has been transferred to CEX or market makers
German Goverment transferred 752.166 BTC to Flow Traders at 2:12 UTC+8 today, worth about $43.74 million; and transferred 3,094 BTC to the suspected B2C2 Group: 139PoP…H7ybVu at 2:19 UTC+8 today, worth about $180 million. Currently, German Goverment has no BTC positions, and all BTC have been transferred to CEX or market makers.
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