The following are the research reports of several futures companies exclusively compiled by Jinshi Futures APP, for reference only
soda ash
Trading logic: The overall operating load of manufacturers remains at a high level; downstream resumes on-demand procurement, and new orders are generally followed up; the overall maintenance volume has decreased this year; the soda ash delivery inventory is high; coal price support is weaker than the same period last year
Risk factors: Turkey's largest photovoltaic glass production line was ignited; the demand for light and heavy alkali in the first half of the year was very good; profits were at a historical low for the same period; manufacturers' inventory fell slightly from last week
Focus on the following events: the maintenance progress and inventory changes of the alkali plant; the production and operation status of Yuanxing; the recovery of light alkali demand; the willingness of downstream companies to replenish inventory, etc.
Palm Oil
Trading logic: U.S. soybean weather speculation has cooled down; domestic palm oil inventory has risen for two consecutive weeks; the domestic oil tank mixing incident continues to ferment; the impact of Indonesian tariff news has eased
Risk factors: Good demand for biodiesel; Summer is the traditional peak season for palm oil consumption; Malaysian palm oil exports may increase significantly in July; Malaysian palm oil production still faces great uncertainty
Focus: Malaysia's palm oil export situation; India and other countries' purchasing progress; weather outlook for major oil and fat producing areas; biodiesel policies of various countries, etc.
Iron Ore
Trading logic: Steel mill profits continue to shrink; domestic infrastructure projects slow down; port inventories hit a record high for the same period and continue to accumulate; molten iron production falls
Risk factors: seasonal decline in global shipments; favorable domestic policy expectations remain; significant reduction in iron ore inventory at steel mills
Focus on events: overseas miners' shipments; port inventory changes; changes in molten iron production; the introduction and implementation of relevant policies, etc.
European Line
Trading logic: The average weekly capacity of European routes in July decreased by 5% month-on-month; July to October is the traditional peak season for European shipping; the tight capacity situation has not changed; airlines may further increase prices in August
Risk factors: Freight rates on many global routes have loosened or declined; the consistency of shipping companies’ price hikes in late July is weak; there is a risk of prices falling from high levels; the market expects the geopolitical situation to ease
Focus on events: whether geopolitical conflicts can be significantly eased; the adjustment and implementation of shipping prices by major global shipping companies; the latest adjustment of the SCFIS European Line Index, etc.
crude
Trading logic: Destocking in the third quarter is unlikely to exceed expectations; demand growth is weak; there is still uncertainty about OPEC+ production policy in the future; the daily supply of crude oil in Russia, Iraq and Kazakhstan is still higher than the quota
Risk factors: OPEC monthly report reaffirms optimistic expectations for oil demand growth; US refinery operating rates rise to a high for the same period; EIA monthly report believes that there will be a supply gap in the crude oil market
Focus on events: OPEC+ member countries' oil production cuts; changes in U.S. crude oil inventories; the impact of Hurricane Beryl on refinery operations; changes in geopolitical situations; U.S. economic data, etc.
Manganese Silicon
Trading logic: The contradiction of high inventory has not been alleviated; the marginal increase space for hot metal resumption continues to narrow; the new round of bidding volume of Hesteel has declined; Silicomanganese has started negative feedback to weaken the demand for manganese ore
Risk factors: Southern manufacturers began to reduce production; some manufacturers in Inner Mongolia gradually suffered losses; global manganese ore shipments fell sharply year-on-year; high-quality manganese ore supply is still in short supply
Focus on events: the increase in manganese ore shipped from South Africa to China in the future; changes in warehouse receipts and silicomanganese inventory; trends in Australian mine shipment restrictions; changes in electricity prices, etc.
Shanghai Nickel
Trading logic: The nickel industry still faces oversupply pressure in the medium and long term; the orders for ternary precursors are reduced; the terminal demand for stainless steel is relatively weak; the London nickel continues to accumulate
Risk factors: potential for bottom-out rebound; nickel sulfate production profit has entered a loss; Indonesia's RKAB approval progress is still slow
Focus on events: Indonesia's RKAB and other industrial policy trends; changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy; Shanghai nickel and London nickel inventory accumulation, etc.
Disclaimer
The information in this article is compiled from public sources. This article strives to provide accurate and reliable information, but no guarantees are made as to the accuracy and completeness of this information. This article does not constitute personal investment advice. Investors are responsible for their own investment decisions based on this information.
The article is forwarded from: Jinshi Data
