September 1, 2023 Grandpa checks in

According to foreign media reports, the SEC has postponed its decision on seven spot Bitcoin ETFs submitted by BlackRock, Fidelity, Bitwish, etc., which means that the earliest decision date will be postponed to October. Perhaps affected by this, Bitcoin fell back to 26,000 with a big negative line, and it has been in an inverted V trend for a while. In addition, the UK Financial Regulatory Authority introduced new regulations for crypto asset service providers for the first time on August 17, and will have the right to temporarily withhold some cryptocurrency transfers starting from September 1. The news has made a big reversal, which directly gave a bearish outlook.

Generally speaking, news can only have a temporary impact, and this rise and fall are all affected by the news, so we can ignore this inverted V market, but despite this, the uncertainty of the market has also increased. At the same time, we also need to understand that the short-term market can rise and fall sharply, and it must be that the main force has taken the initiative in terms of chips, otherwise it would not be easy to go through such a long-short double explosion market. Now that it has returned to 26,000, I still believe that the pin price near 25,000 has a certain degree of market protection, and the probability of a short-term break is very small.

In addition, some people have detected the high-buying and low-selling behavior of the whales on the chain. The whale address that chased the rise of 10,000 ETH at an average price of 1,714 a few days ago sold it at an average price of 1,644 US dollars today, and the account lost millions of US dollars. In addition, I don’t know if you have noticed that the recent large addresses on the chain have been active, some have pledged to go long on WBTC, and some have openly gone long and short. Various signs indicate that the market may stage a significant change in the future. I looked at the long-term indicators and found that the trend has begun to deteriorate recently. Therefore, when buying at the bottom, you should also pay attention to the risk of a major change.

The big drop I mentioned has always been our assumption and guess. When the market is high, we can reduce our positions or hold about half of the cash on hand to deal with this uncertain opportunity. For the current market, it is more important to layout and hold positions. When the market is unpopular and fearful, the market may fall, but as long as the position is reasonably configured, it will eventually outperform most people. Pessimists may be right, and optimists often succeed.

Thank you for your attention and likes.