Federal Reserve Chairman Powell concluded his two-day semi-annual congressional testimony, where he talked about current monetary policy, acknowledging that considerable progress has been made on inflation, while saying that inflation does not need to be below 2% before cutting interest rates, and there is no specific inflation number to determine a rate cut.
Market watchers generally expect at least two rate cuts in 2024, and Powell's dovish comments reinforced that expectation. The probability of a September rate cut is now seen at 75%, up from 73% yesterday.
The stock market interpreted the announcement positively, with optimism pushing U.S. stocks to new highs one after another. Both the S&P and Nasdaq indices rose for seven consecutive days and hit all-time highs during intraday trading. As of Wednesday's close, the S&P, Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices all rose sharply, up 1.02%, 1.09% and 1.18% respectively. The S&P closed above 5,600 points for the first time in history.
The crypto market is still in a state of consolidation. BTC rose to a high of $59,500 in early trading on Wednesday, but fell under pressure in the afternoon and fell back below $58,000. It is currently fluctuating sideways around $58,000.
The current overall cryptocurrency market capitalization is $2.12 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for 53.4%.
German government's coin sale is about to end
On Wednesday, the German government once again transferred more than 10,853 bitcoins worth $637.7 million to various CEX and market maker addresses. Or continue to prepare for the sell-off.
Data shows that as of press time, the German government only has 15,520 bitcoins left, worth more than $890 million.
Since June 18, when Dezi began transferring funds to exchanges, the price of bitcoin has fallen by about 17%, hitting a low of $53,500 last week. If the transfers continue at the current pace, all of his confiscated bitcoins could be sold by the end of this week.
ETF inflows remain “healthy”
Inflows into U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have increased, with a total of $654.3 million flowing into these products in the three trading days since July 4.
Although ETF inflows have been erratic over the past few months after hitting record highs, overall ETF demand remains healthy.
Yesterday alone, more money was poured into BlackRock’s IBIT than in nearly 90% of all 300-plus ETFs launched this year combined. While most ETF issuers struggle to capture $121 million in daily inflows, IBIT has already taken in $18 billion in six months.
About 500 ETFs were launched last year, and halfway through 2024, 76% of them still have less than $121 million in assets. It is difficult for new issuers to attract $100 million in the ETF market. However, since the launch of IBIT, there have been 60 days with more than $100 million in funds.
BTC needs to reclaim at least $60,000 range low as support
Bitcoin has been met with persistent selling after every rally, with the key level to watch being $60,500, a break above which would mean a return to bullish territory for Bitcoin.
In terms of Bitcoin prices, although Bitcoin prices briefly broke through $59,000 in early trading on Wednesday, they subsequently fell back below $58,000, indicating that "Bitcoin is not ready to break the downtrend yet." BTC needs to reclaim the $60,600 range low as support before it can return to the re-accumulation range that it broke through last week.
Bitcoin is at a critical stage in this market cycle as several factors suggest that prices will continue to fall while others suggest that a bottom is imminent.
Among them, the Bitcoin Profit and Loss (P&L) index is hovering near its 365-day moving average, and the previous downward crossover was a precursor to the deep decline that began in May and November 2021, leading to a major market correction. In addition, Tether's market value growth, which is often considered a key driver of the bull market, has now stagnated.
But Bitcoin whales are continuing to hoard at the fastest rate in more than a year, with their Bitcoin holdings increasing by 6.3% during the month to the highest level since April 2023.
Other positive factors, such as the US SEC's upcoming approval of the Ethereum ETF, suggest that despite signs of weakness in the short term, the price will continue to rise in the long run. It is only a matter of time before the 100,000-dollar pie becomes a reality.
Later, I will bring you analysis of leading projects in other tracks. If you are interested, you can click to follow. I will also organize some cutting-edge consulting and project reviews from time to time. Welcome all like-minded people in the cryptocurrency circle to explore together.
