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Macro News

1. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in June 2024, the national consumer price index rose by 0.2% year-on-year. The price of consumer goods fell by 0.1%, and the price of services rose by 0.7%. In June, the national consumer price index fell by 0.2% month-on-month. The national industrial producer price index fell by 0.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and turned from a 0.2% increase in the previous month to a 0.2% decrease month-on-month.

2. Shanghai issued the "Shanghai Action Plan to Accelerate Automobile Renewal Consumption (2024-2027)", which pointed out that efforts should be made to accelerate vehicle elimination and renewal and optimize the automobile market structure to accelerate automobile renewal consumption.

3. Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, said in a report that as U.S. inflation continues to slow and cracks begin to appear in the labor market, the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September seems increasingly likely. Reuters data shows that the market currently expects a 19 basis point rate cut in September.

4. Maersk said that the Sentosa was attacked in the northern part of the Gulf of Aden. No one was injured and the ship was not damaged. We can confirm that the report that the Sentosa was attacked by a flying object in the northernmost part of the Gulf of Aden in the early hours of July 9 is true.

Global futures market changes

1. International oil prices rose across the board, with the August contract of U.S. crude up 1.23% to $82.41 per barrel, and the September contract of Brent crude up 0.83% to $85.36 per barrel.

2. International precious metal futures closed slightly higher, with COMEX gold futures up 0.42% at $2,377.9 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.08% at $31.08 per ounce.

3. London base metals closed with mixed gains and losses, with LME copper futures down 0.11% at $9,858/ton, LME zinc futures up 0.89% at $2,956.5/ton, LME nickel futures down 1.85% at $16,825/ton, LME aluminum futures down 0.74% at $2,478/ton, LME tin futures up 2.26% at $35,125/ton and LME lead futures down 0.75% at $2,177.5/ton.

4. The main agricultural futures contracts of the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell across the board, with soybean futures down 1.27% to 1066.25 cents per bushel; corn futures down 0.24% to 407.5 cents per bushel, and wheat futures down 1.97% to 560.75 cents per bushel.

5. Domestic commodity futures closed mixed at night trading, with most energy and chemical products rising, methanol up 1.18%, No. 20 rubber up nearly 1%, and soda ash down 2.35%. Black series fell across the board. Agricultural products generally fell, with rapeseed oil down 0.74%. Base metals rose and fell, with Shanghai tin up 1.58%, Shanghai zinc up 0.45%, Shanghai copper up 0.19%, Shanghai aluminum down 0.4%, Shanghai lead down 0.56%, stainless steel down 0.75%, Shanghai nickel down 1.12%, and alumina down 2.9%.

Black hot news

1. As of the week of July 10, Zhaogang.com's inventory analysis showed that the output of building materials was 3.2592 million tons, a decrease of 159,700 tons from the previous week; the apparent demand for building materials was 3.3814 million tons, a decrease of 75,100 tons from the previous week.

2. According to Mysteel, in May 2024, Indonesia's stainless steel exports were about 403,100 tons, an increase of 0.6% from the previous month and 39.5% from the previous year. From January to May 2024, Indonesia's cumulative stainless steel exports were about 2,065,200 tons, an increase of 478,900 tons from the previous year, an increase of 30.2%.

3. According to Mysteel, the price of steel billets in Tangshan dropped by 40 yuan to 3,280 yuan/ton compared with last week. This week, the average molten iron cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan increased by 26 yuan to 2,593 yuan/ton, and the average tax-inclusive cost of steel billets rebounded by 25 yuan to 3,388 yuan/ton. The average loss of steel mills was 108 yuan/ton, reaching a low of nearly 4 months, an increase of 65 yuan/ton from the previous week.

4. According to Steel Valley Network, the national building materials social inventory was 7.957 million tons, an increase of 88,500 tons from last week, an increase of 1.12%; the output was 4.0672 million tons, a decrease of 72,000 tons from last week, a decrease of 1.74%.

Hot news on agricultural products

1. Reuters released its forecast for U.S. crop data in the USDA's July supply and demand report. Analysts on average expected that U.S. soybean ending stocks in 2024/2025 will be 449 million bushels, U.S. soybean production in 2024/2025 will be 4.424 billion bushels, and soybean yield will be 51.9 bushels per acre.

2. Data released by the Cotton Association of India (CAI) showed that the country's cotton exports in the 2023/2024 crop year (ending in September) are expected to increase by about 10.5% to 2.6 million bales. CAI expects India's cotton production in 2023/2024 to be 31.7 million bales, higher than the 30.97 million bales estimated last month, but lower than the 31.89 million bales in the previous year.

3. According to Malaysia's independent inspection agency AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 to 10 were 528,843 tons, an increase of 85.86% from 284,540 tons exported in the same period last month.

4. Reuters released data forecasts on South American crop production in the USDA July supply and demand report. Analysts on average expect Brazil's soybean production to be 151.75 million tons in 2023/2024 and Argentina's soybean production to be 49.95 million tons in 2023/2024.

5. According to data from shipping research agency ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 to 10 were 536,193 tons, an increase of 82.06% from 294,516 tons exported in the same period last month.

6. According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), Malaysia's palm oil production in June was 1,615,283 tons, a decrease of 5.23% from the previous month; palm oil imports in June were 11,738 tons, a decrease of 43.46% from the previous month; palm oil inventories in June were 1,829,469 tons, an increase of 4.35% from the previous month; palm oil exports in June were 1,205,214 tons, a decrease of 12.82% from the previous month.

7. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released data showing that private exporters reported exports of 132,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in 2024/2025.

8. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) said that Brazil's soybean exports in July will reach 10.29 million tons, compared with the previous estimate of 9.5 million tons, corn exports are expected to reach 4.09 million tons, compared with the previous forecast of 3.4 million tons, and soybean meal exports are expected to reach 1.87 million tons, compared with the previous forecast of 1.8 million tons.

9. According to the expected values ​​of foreign media surveys, as of the week of July 4, 2024, the U.S. soybean net export sales in the 2023/24 marketing year are expected to be 200,000-600,000 tons, and the soybean net export sales in the 2024/25 marketing year are expected to be 50,000-300,000 tons; the U.S. corn net export sales in the 2023/24 marketing year are expected to be 300,000-850,000 tons, and the corn net export sales in the 2024/25 marketing year are expected to be 0-500,000 tons.

Energy and Chemical Industry Hot News

1. According to the official website of the Osaka Exchange (OSE) on July 10, as of June 30, 2024, the rubber (RSS) inventory in the exchange's designated warehouses was 6,394 tons, a decrease of 532 tons from 6,926 tons as of June 20. ​

2. According to Longzhong Information, in June 2024, my country's heavy-duty truck market sold about 74,000 vehicles, a decrease of 5% from May and a decrease of 14% from 86,500 vehicles in the same period last year, a decrease of about 12,000 vehicles.

3. According to data from the Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ), the average operating rate of Japanese refineries was 56.4% in the week ending July 6, compared with 58.5% on June 29. Japan's commercial crude oil inventories increased by 670,000 kiloliters to 10.69 million kiloliters. Japan's gasoline inventories fell by 120,000 kiloliters to 1.68 million kiloliters.

4. According to Longzhong Information, as of July 10, 2024, the total methanol port inventory in China is 895,400 tons, an increase of 7,900 tons from the previous period. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 1,500 tons, while the inventory in South China increased by 9,400 tons.

5. According to the previous energy announcement, after research and decision, it was agreed that the approved storage capacity of the No. 20 rubber futures delivery warehouse of Jigang International Logistics Co., Ltd. would be increased from 10,000 tons to 20,000 tons, and the activated storage capacity would be increased from 10,000 tons to 20,000 tons.

6. The latest data from the UAE Fujairah Oil Industry Zone showed that as of the week of July 8, the total inventory of refined oil at the UAE Fujairah Port was 18.318 million barrels, an increase of 1.778 million barrels from the previous week. Among them, light distillate oil inventories increased by 601,000 barrels to 5.741 million barrels, medium distillate oil inventories increased by 497,000 barrels to 3.156 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventories increased by 680,000 barrels to 9.421 million barrels.

7. According to SMM research, a large alumina plant in Shandong adjusted the delivery price of ion-exchange membrane caustic soda by 32% from July 10, increasing it by 20 yuan/ton on the basis of 700 yuan/ton; that is, the two-invoice system is implemented at 720 yuan/ton (the 100% discount price is about 2,250 yuan/ton).

8. According to the OPEC monthly report, the global crude oil demand growth rate is expected to be 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024, which was previously expected to be 2.25 million barrels per day. The global crude oil demand growth rate is expected to be 1.85 million barrels per day in 2025, which was previously expected to be 1.85 million barrels per day. The global economic growth forecast for 2024 was lowered from 2.9% to 2.8%, and the global economic growth forecast for 2025 was maintained at 2.9%.

9. The EIA report shows that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves fell by 3.443 million barrels to 445 million barrels in the week ended July 5, the lowest since the week ended March 15, 2024, a decrease of 0.77%, which was higher than market expectations. U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 477,000 barrels to 373.1 million barrels, an increase of 0.13%.

Metal Hot News

1. According to the data from China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in June, the domestic sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 963,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 12.5% ​​and a year-on-year increase of 32.2%; the export volume of new energy vehicles reached 86,000 units, a month-on-month decrease of 13.2% and a year-on-year increase of 10.3%.

2. According to SMM, the spodumene concentrate bidding activity held by the international lithium giant Albemarle Chemical yesterday has officially come to an end. It is understood that the total amount of spodumene involved in this bidding is 14,000 tons, and the final batch of spodumene concentrate was successfully sold at a price of US$980/ton (CIF China).

3. Canadian tin producer Alphamin Resources said on Wednesday that its tin production in the second quarter of this year was 4,027 tons, a 28% increase from the previous quarter. In the second quarter, its tin sales were 3,245 tons.

Bragging about "futures" - revealing the logic of commodity trading!

1. Nickel ore supply is expected to remain loose overall. How do you view Shanghai Nickel in the short term?

Hualian Futures analysis pointed out that in terms of industry, China's refined nickel production capacity continues to be released, stainless steel terminal demand lacks obvious boost, inventory levels are at a high level during the same period, and in terms of the new energy industry chain, some precursor companies have some rigid demand purchases. As salt factories gradually enter the loss node, salt factories support prices again, and nickel sulfate prices temporarily stabilize, but the total demand is still weak. The overall supply of nickel ore is expected to remain loose, but the actual supply of Indonesian nickel ore in the short term continues to be in a tight balance, the ore price remains high, and the tightness of the ore end may become a strong support in the short term. In terms of inventory, domestic refined nickel social inventory has been destocked for four consecutive weeks, and overseas inventory continues to accumulate. In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to reducing long positions in Shanghai Nickel 2409.

2. Domestic demand has not improved. Will palm oil continue to be weak in the short term?

Everbright Futures analysis pointed out that from the market situation, my country's recent sluggish oil consumption may lead to weak exports of Malaysian palm oil in June. MPOB data showed that Malaysian palm oil exports in June were weaker than expected, falling from the previous value of 1.38 million tons to 1.205 million tons. It should be noted that Malaysian palm oil production has declined from the previous value of 1.7 million tons to 1.615 million tons, and the accumulation of inventory is also slightly weaker than market expectations. The palm oil market may be boosted in the short term. Malaysian palm oil is currently in the seasonal production season, and the market still has expectations of accumulated inventory. We should not be overly optimistic about the rebound in the market. Overall, although the MPOB report has released certain positive signals, the downward trend of US soybeans has not stabilized, and domestic demand has not improved. The short-term weak trend of palm oil may continue. Pay attention to changes in crude oil prices and the impact of the previous drought on palm oil production in southern Indonesia.

Today's important futures data and events at a glance

1. At 20:00 on July 11, Conab announced the results of the tenth Brazilian grain production survey for 2023/2024. Previously, Conab announced in June that corn production was 114.1 million tons, and the market expected 113.24, which was much higher than expected. The CBOT corn market fell by nearly 10% in the weeks after the data was released; soybean production also far exceeded expectations, and CBOT soybeans also fell by nearly 10% in the weeks after the data was released. It is necessary to pay attention to the deviation between Conab's latest survey results and market expectations.

2. At 20:30 on July 11, the monthly and annual rates of the seasonally adjusted CPI for June in the United States were released. The latest annual rate of CPI was 3.3%, lower than the market expectation of 3.4%. Pay attention to whether the CPI data can decline, because the decline of this data means that the possibility of a US interest rate cut is increasing, which has a significant impact on market sentiment.

3. July 11 is to be determined, a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil will begin.

The article is forwarded from: Jinshi Data