Consumer confidence declines, JOLTS data weakens😨
Yesterday, the fixed income market was forced to face reality. U.S. economic data encountered obstacles. JOLTS employment data and consumer confidence were both far lower than market expectations. The number of job vacancies in July was 8.827 million, which was about 4 standards away from the expected 9.5 million. The difference in job vacancies was even lower than the downwardly revised June figure of 9.165 million. The decline in job vacancies was mainly concentrated in the professional services field; in addition, the resignation rate fell from 2.4% to 2.3%, the lowest level since January, and The level was consistent with the pre-epidemic level, with the accommodation and food services industry experiencing the largest decline, from 5.1% to 3.9%; Powell's preferred ratio of job vacancies to unemployed people fell from 1.6 to 1.5, the lowest level since September 2021, but It is still well above the 1.2 level that represents a relatively healthy job market, but other data has heightened market expectations that this Friday's non-farm payrolls data will weaken.
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index also weakened, reaching 106.1, lower than the expected 116, and down 8 points from last month's revised number. Both the current situation index and the expectations index were weak. In addition, the employment market difference index It also fell to 26.2 from 32.4, the lowest level since April 2021, consistent with the weakness in the JOLTS data.
