Here it comes again. The German government has transferred 1,000 BTC again, of which 500 were transferred to Coinbase and Bitstamp, and the other 500 were transferred to another address, which is speculated to be from a market maker. Obviously, the German government has not left the market yet, and with the continued sale of BTC, Bitcoin will face further challenges. However, various predictions of the lowest price have begun to circulate in the market, some say 30,000, and some say 20,000. Xiaodie believes that according to the current holdings of the German government, even if all are sold, the price will not fall to this level, so there is no need to worry too much if there are no other black swan events.
This wave of retracement is within Xiaodie's expectations, and it is a preparation for the super bull market next year, and the lowest price depends on the occurrence of black swan events. To some extent, the German government's accidental confiscation of 50,000 BTC and its choice to sell it is itself a black swan event, just because it is a slow process. Therefore, the bottom price of this wave of Bitcoin must wait until the German government stops selling or sells out its coins.
According to rumors, the force of this wave of decline comes not only from Germany, but also from the United States and the mysterious Eastern power. These chips that smashed the market mainly came from punishment. According to the liquidity of BTC, the reliability of this rumor is relatively high. In other words, a smash of only a few hundred million US dollars will not cause such a big drop, and there was also the benefit of ETFs pulling the market. In short, this wave of smashing the market is the real chips being shipped. As long as the chips of the German government are not transferred out in large quantities in a short period of time, there will be no new plunge.
In the short term, there is a high probability that there will be a rebound after this wave of retracement, but don't be too optimistic after the rebound. It is impossible to reverse directly after a big drop, but there will be a period of shock or a second bottoming out. Therefore, Xiaodie judged that if the big cake can hold the previous low under the condition of continuous shipment by the German government, it means a stage bottom. Everyone should also notice that when the big cake stepped back today, the altcoin did not fall below the support level.
