The CPI data is out, what should we do? What does it mean for interest rate cuts?

Looking at the data itself, both the basic and core CPI were slightly below expectations, which is exactly what the Fed wants to see. Inflation is on a downward trajectory, and over the next two to three months, the CPI should fall back to the 2% range, so this is very good news, getting closer and closer to the Fed's 2% target.

So what does this mean for interest rates? First of all, I think it is impossible to cut interest rates in July. The Fed will not panic and there is no need to cut interest rates in July. The market expects a 70% chance of a rate cut in September, which I personally think is a bit high. Powell said he wants to see more monthly data, so this includes August's CPI and possibly September's non-farm payroll report. It is not impossible to cut interest rates in September, but the probability is not as high as 70%. The probability of a rate cut this year is higher than ever before. The US economy is gradually slowing down from overheating, accompanied by a decline in inflation, which is good news for all markets.

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Last night, US technology stocks plunged, and cryptocurrencies have continued to fall. I think many people are wondering what is going on, and will this continue?

After the release of CPI data last night, some large technology stocks were gradually sold off. They are the main force behind the stock market's rise this year, including Apple, Tesla and Apple. In the end, the Nasdaq closed down 2%, the biggest drop in a long time. What happened?

I think what we are seeing is a rotation. Long tech stocks have always been a crowded trade, and so have cryptocurrencies. Everyone on Wall Street has bought these companies, and they have basically been pushing up the Nasdaq all year long, and everyone is holding these stocks. And yesterday's CPI miss almost guarantees a rate cut this year, and the probability of September has increased, so some people are starting to move to the most interest rate sensitive sectors, small cap stocks such as the Russell 2000 index. The big companies where everyone is making money are taking profits and rotating into the Russell, which has previously performed poorly. Because the market is so confident about the rate cut, the interest rate sensitive sectors benefited, so the Russell 200 index closed up more than 3%. So basically this rotation trend. Because the previous trade was too crowded, once one or two large investment funds start rotating, others see it and join in.