Despite the growth of BTC in recent hours, this is still the third day when the price cannot break through the EMA of the 200 day TF. Now this moving average is at $58,278.
Trading on Saturday ended with a test of the breakdown of this EMA and all of Sunday's decline was a reaction to the inability of#BTCbuyers to break through this resistance. Then, after an overnight increase in liquidity from below and a test of the $54,314 level, the price has now returned to the EMA 200 of the daily TF. This is now the defining resistance.
In case of its breakdown, the next important test for buyers will be the downward trend since June 7. It already has an unsuccessful breakout on June 30 - July 3. Another unsuccessful breakout could send the BTC price to a new local level, in the area of the volume level of $51,604.
BUT if the breakdown of this EMA and this trend line is successful (for now the priority scenario for us) - the path to the volume level of $62,987 will open. This is the maximum target within the rebound. A move above which means there is a serious chance of a reversal. The 0.5 Fibonacci level of decline since June 7 is located nearby and the EMA of the 50 day TF is also approaching it. Which again is the watershed between the rebound and reversal scenarios with a new ATH.
On the daily RSI chart, there is another trend line that needs to be broken through to confirm the reversal scenario. We've set an alert and will keep you informed.
On the#BTCfutures chart on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), this time trading opened without a gap. By the way, the EMA 200 day TF was tested during Friday trading. Which has not been tested since October 2023.
