The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 93.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 6.7%. Looking ahead to September, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged is 22.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 72.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 5.1%.
The August forecast shows a very high probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged. This indicates that the current economic conditions and inflationary pressures are not strong enough to prompt the Fed to adjust interest rates in the short term. This also reflects the Fed's confidence in economic growth and the job market, although inflationary pressures remain. September's forecasts show that the market's expectations for rate cuts have increased. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is as high as 72.5%, indicating that market participants generally believe that economic conditions will change in the coming months, prompting the Fed to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy. This is related to potential signs of economic slowdown or weakening inflationary pressures.
According to the data, the distribution of 21 million bitcoins is as follows: 57% are held by individuals, 17.6% are lost bitcoins, 6.6% are yet to be mined, 5.2% are held by Satoshi Nakamoto wallets, 3.9% are held by BTC ETFs, 3.6% are held by companies, 3.4% are held by miners, and 2.7% are held by the government. This distribution reflects the diversity and complexity of the bitcoin market.
As high as 57% of Bitcoin is held by individuals, which shows that Bitcoin, as a decentralized asset, is still mainly in the hands of individuals. The level of this ratio has a direct impact on market liquidity and price stability. A high proportion of individual holdings will bring greater market volatility, especially when market sentiment fluctuates. Secondly, the proportion of lost Bitcoins reached 17.6%. This part of Bitcoin cannot be recovered for various reasons, which actually reduces the actual supply in the market. For long-term players, the loss of this part of Bitcoin will support the price, because the actual circulation in the market has decreased and the supply is tight.
Only 6.6% of bitcoins have yet to be mined, which means that most of the bitcoins have already been mined. As the bitcoin mining reward decreases, the supply of new bitcoins will be more limited in the future, which is also a reflection of the deflationary nature of bitcoin. In the long run, it will help stabilize and increase prices. In addition, Satoshi Nakamoto's wallet accounts for 5.2%, and these bitcoins have not been moved so far. The holding of this part of bitcoins also has a potential impact on the market, but because it has not been moved for a long time, the direct impact on the market is temporarily small.
The trend of the crypto market often turns from rising to falling, and then experiences deeper and longer adjustments. Players should avoid buying too early when the price of Bitcoin drops 10% from a high point, but choose to buy when the market is generally liquidated and most people exit to prepare for the next cycle. More than 98% of altcoins have peaked in this cycle, and only a few may hit new highs in the fourth quarter of 2024 or the first quarter of 2025.
Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, wrote on X that he would be "shocked" if the Ethereum spot ETF was not listed and traded in the next two weeks. He believes that the Ethereum spot ETF is more likely to be launched in the week of July 15. This news has undoubtedly attracted widespread attention in the market, especially in the context of Ethereum prices falling by more than 20% since the "accidental" approval of Form 19b-4 in late May.
From a regulatory perspective, the approval of Form 19b-4 means that the market is ready for the launch of a spot Ethereum ETF. However, Ethereum prices have experienced a significant correction during this period, which reflects the market's lack of expectations for the upcoming ETF or concerns about other macroeconomic factors. As a financial tool, ETFs can attract more traditional players to enter the market and bring in more capital inflows. This will enhance Ethereum's market liquidity and stability and help prices recover. However, it is also necessary to be wary of short-term price fluctuations, especially before the market fully digests the news of the ETF launch.
Since June 19, the German government has transferred 13,466 bitcoins with a total value of approximately $819.3 million. Currently, the German government still holds 39,826 bitcoins with a market value of approximately $2.29 billion.
What we need to consider is what is the motivation for the government to transfer bitcoins on such a large scale? A transfer of this scale means that the government is reorganizing its assets or preparing for some form of market intervention. In addition, the large amount of transfers also shows the government's attention and influence on the Bitcoin market. From a market perspective, this transfer will put some pressure on the price of Bitcoin. Although there has been no significant fluctuation in the market at present, such a large-scale transfer cannot be ignored. Players need to pay close attention to whether there will be further movements in the future, especially whether there will be large-scale selling.
Next week, XAI, IMX, APT and other tokens will be unlocked in large amounts at once, with a total unlocked value of more than 170 million US dollars. The specific unlocking details are as follows:
Xai (XAI): About 198.4 million tokens will be unlocked at 5:30 pm Beijing time on July 9, accounting for 71.59% of the current circulation, worth about US$55 million.
dydx (DYDX): About 1.55 million tokens will be unlocked at 0:00 Beijing time on July 10, accounting for 0.68% of the current circulation, worth about US$1.9 million.
Moonbeam (GLMR): About 3.04 million tokens will be unlocked at 8:00 am Beijing time on July 11, accounting for 0.34% of the current circulation, worth about US$560,000.
io.net (IO): About 2.11 million tokens will be unlocked at 8:00 pm Beijing time on July 11, accounting for 2.22% of the current circulation, worth about US$4.4 million.
Immutable (IMX): Approximately 32.47 million tokens will be unlocked at 8:00 a.m. Beijing time on July 12, accounting for 2.15% of the current circulation, worth approximately US$41.6 million.
Aptos (APT): About 11.31 million tokens will be unlocked at 9:59 pm Beijing time on July 12, accounting for 2.49% of the current circulation, worth about US$63 million.
Ethena (ENA): About 14.89 million tokens will be unlocked at 3:00 p.m. Beijing time on July 14, accounting for 0.87% of the current circulation, worth about US$5.6 million.
The impact of this massive token unlock on the market cannot be ignored. Unlocking large amounts of tokens typically increases supply on the market, putting downward pressure on prices. Especially the unlocking of XAI, which accounts for 71.59% of the current circulation, is likely to cause significant price fluctuations.
BTC: The weekly level closed with a big negative line, the short-term moving average is below the long-term moving average, and the overall downward trend shows that the market is in a weak state. The MACD indicator shows that the current market momentum is still bearish, and the red column is gradually getting longer, indicating that the short-selling force is increasing. Combined with macro data and the continuous selling of governments of various countries and Mentougou compensation, the bottom may not appear yet, and the market may fall further in the future.
ETH: Linked to Bitcoin trend.
The panic index is currently 28 (fear) #德国政府转移比特币 #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 #美联储何时降息？
