1. The US dollar index is falling rapidly
Non-farm data supports expectations of rate cuts
Before the actual rate cut, there will be a period of positive market expectations. The probability of a rate cut on September 18 has increased to 71.1%.
This is probably the last drop.
2. The annualized funding rate, or the cost of holding leveraged bets, for perpetual futures pegged to the top 25 cryptocurrencies has been reset to below 10%.
In early June, Bitcoin's strong bullish momentum attracted many investors to join in, using leveraged products to maximize their returns, and the financing rate soared to more than 40%.
The overheated market sentiment has subsided, which is a good signal and opens a new door for growth!
3. Considering the cost of BTC energy miners, 56741 is the shutdown price, 62816 is a relatively healthy price, and it should be kept above 70,000 normally. Try not to use new mining machines such as S21 for calculation, after all, most miners still use S19!
4. BTC price peak will be in the third quarter of 25 years after the interest rate cut
In the 2015-2017 cycle, Bitcoin peaked 518 days after the halving.
In the 2019-2021 cycle, Bitcoin peaked 546 days after the halving
If history repeats itself, the next bull market peak will occur 518-546 days after the halving
BTC may reach the peak of this cycle in mid-September or mid-October 2025, which matches the macro dollar cycle!
6. Altcoin situation
Currently, the percentage of altcoins with a 90-day return rate higher than Bitcoin has fallen to the bottom - 5%. From a historical perspective, it belongs to the historical bottom range.
This shows that the market has fallen back to the lowest expectation for altcoins, with limited room for decline and unlimited upper limit. The odds are sufficient, and the reversal trend will soon appear. After yesterday's sharp drop, many altcoins have seen the largest volume in 90 days and the K-line closed, indicating strong momentum for bottom-fishing.
BTC
The price has rebounded to the H1 supply zone of 58000-58800! Pay attention to whether it can break through 58800 to form a structural destruction and continue upward successfully, otherwise wait for the second exploration and pay attention to the two support areas below!
ETH
The price is still a little short of the H1 supply zone of 3120-3170! Pay attention to whether the price can break through 3170 to form a structural destruction! Otherwise, wait for the second test and pay attention to the two support areas below!
The information and data involved in this content are derived from publicly available materials, and we strive to be accurate and reliable, but we do not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information. The content does not constitute any investment advice, and you are solely responsible for investing based on it!
