Yesterday, BTC plunged downward, approaching 53k. It then automatically rebounded and has remained above 56k. The crypto market suffered a comprehensive bloodbath, from the local high of 63.8k on July 2 to the lowest of 53.3k on July 5, with a drop of only 16% in 4 days. This is compared with the 2021 "519" from the local high of 59.5k on May 10 to the plunge of 29k on May 19, with a drop of 51% in 10 days. In comparison, "75" (July 5) is nothing compared to the big one.
Bitcoin is only one strong support level away from the 50,000 mark, which shows that the bears are extremely strong. If it falls below this level in the future, it will enter the 4 era. Has it hit the bottom now? No, it will take a long time to find support, so there will be a downward wave after a rebound. In the short term, 58800-60000 has formed a strong pressure zone. ETH has retreated to around 2800 many times. If it falls below 2750 in the future, it will go to 2300. It is a high probability event. In the short term, 3160-3200 has formed a strong pressure zone.
The only thing that can comfort you now is that there will be cheap chips for you to pick up later, time for space, and then continue the high light. There is no hope for copycats this year. The price has reached the ceiling in March. Although many prices are already very low, as low as the floor, there are still eighteen levels of hell underground. Buy some copycats when the daily line bottoms out in the future.
If Bitcoin cannot stand back to 63,000 (the starting point of this decline) in 1-2 weeks, the probability of continuing to look for support will increase. Since this round of new highs, it has been sideways for nearly 4 months. We can clearly see that there is a continuous shipment of high-level platforms. If the US macroeconomic environment does not improve and the platform of 4 months of sideways trading is lost, we can almost confirm that Bitcoin will continue to look for support downward, and the next support level will be directly 42,000-45,000, which is a very scary thing. Because it is very likely to show signs of a bearish turn, which is what we least want to see.
From another perspective, the current selling pressure mainly comes from Mentougou's compensation of 140,000 coins, the German government's 40,000 coins, miners, 2 million coins of on-site liquid tokens, continued small outflows from ETFs, rumors, and our government.
These forces have jointly directed this wave of decline, but now more than 75% of mining machine models have reached the shutdown price, and the only ones left are the recent batch of new mining machines. Against the background of declining computing power, the probability of Bitcoin continuing to spiral downward is extremely low, which has never happened in history (not in the interests of all whales, institutions, governments, miners and mining farms). So from this perspective, the probability of Bitcoin V rebounding to above 63,000 is higher than falling to around 42,000.
Looking at the past, every time the cryptocurrency circle cried, cursed, and lied dead, it was an opportunity for a short-term rebound. I believe this time is no exception. The key is to look at the strength of the rebound. The faster it is wrapped up, the stronger the rebound, and the more optimistic the market outlook. On the contrary, if it rises sideways, then I'm sorry, we won't see you below 50,000!
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