There are different views and predictions on the market about the duration of the bull market. Some people think that the bull market may end at the end of this year or early next year, while others think that the bull market will last until early 2026.
I personally tend to the latter view, for reference only, for the following reasons:
1 Volatility of the complete bull-bear cycle:
- Directly comparing this year's market situation with 2021 may ignore the volatility of the bull-bear cycle. The rise from October last year to March this year may only be the early stage of the bull market, not the end of the entire bull market.
2. The impact of the Bitcoin halving event:
- The halving event is often seen as a catalyst for the bull market. Although some people are worried that the price has risen too much before the halving, the starting point of this round of Bitcoin is much higher than the price at the time of the previous halving, so the two cannot be directly compared.
3. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy:
- This year, the Federal Reserve may only make 1-2 small interest rate cuts of 25 basis points each time, resulting in relatively limited funds flowing into the market. In this case, the price of Bitcoin may reach the level of 80,000 to 100,000 US dollars.
Looking ahead to next year, if the Fed increases its interest rate cuts from 25 basis points to 50-75 basis points, this will attract a large amount of capital into the market and promote the prosperity of the entire cryptocurrency market. It is also possible that the price of Bitcoin will reach $120,000-150,000.
For investors who operate prudently, they can consider selling 2/3 of the spot at the end of this year and retaining 1/3 of the position in preparation for further market rise next year. For investors who do not want to miss the bull market feast, they can choose to continue holding while keeping an eye on market dynamics.
No matter how the market fluctuates, patience and a long-term investment perspective are the key. Investors should formulate strategies based on their risk tolerance and investment goals, rather than being swayed by short-term market fluctuations.
