July's trend is very likely to determine the future market direction!
Trend is king, this is the principle of the trading market. When trading, you cannot blindly follow the emotional trend of gossip news. We firmly use data and trading technology as support points, and then clarify the trading strategy after judging the trend of the big cycle.
We can see that after the 5 waves of upward movement in the first half of the year, the price is currently in the C wave of ABC. The current price is already near the top core support level of 60,000 yuan, and it can break through the support at any time. In addition, at the weekly level, the king of indicators MACD shows a top divergence signal, and there is no sign of stopping the decline in the K-line trend. The trading trend in the next week is very critical. If the market trend is no longer able to effectively support, the positive information of the first phase of the Ethereum ETF is estimated to be unable to support the downward pattern that has become a foregone conclusion. Finally, it is reminded that trading is risky, and attention should be paid to position control, especially for long positions and traders who are thinking about grabbing long rebounds. At this time, you should be more calm and cautious, reduce your positions, and wait for a clearer market to come before making a choice. Short positions can prepare ammunition and be ready to shoot.
Yesterday, ETH fell synchronously with BTC, which was beyond expectations. There was fundamental news that the ETF was delayed, and the speculation expectations were extended again. However, the macro environment had a greater impact, and the positive effect of ETF was still weakened. If ETH falls below 2850, the support below is relatively fragile, and there is a support range at 2600. It is likely to continue to fall today. Be patient, be defensive, and seek opportunities for oversold rebounds.
The altcoin sector fell synchronously with the mainstream, and most currencies have a large correction. Today, it collapsed again, and the decline was far beyond expectations. The focus of this round of wash-out by the dog dealer is all on the altcoins. The altcoin chips in the hands of most users are far higher than the mainstream chips, so the wash-out is serious, creating panic and forcing users to hand over their chips. If today's data is bearish, it is expected to continue to fall. The altcoins should wait and see during the day, watch more and do less.
July will be a turning point for the market to develop, and a new round of rising market will
At this stage, there is a possibility that this event will repeat itself in 2024, as Bitcoin performed poorly in June, so many people are expecting a positive performance from Bitcoin in July this year.
The hash rate retracement index dropped significantly
In addition, the second sign is that the miner computing power retracement index has dropped significantly compared to the end of 2022-early 2023.
At that time, the market had FUD about the collapse of FTX exchange, the price of Bitcoin was around $16,000, and miners shut down and "surrendered". Because the cost of mining 1 BTC was higher than the market price of BTC, miners suffered losses.
Since then, the price of Bitcoin has continued to rise from $16,000 to $73,000.
Primary market information:
RGB++ has started free casting. The activity on the chain has increased recently. RGB++ is also a very good new protocol. It has a good effect on the construction of BTC ecology. Continue to pay attention to this sector. The market continues to be sluggish. Wait for the sector to review its popularity before taking action.
The rune market is still sluggish. Pay attention to high-quality currencies in the rune market and wait for the second wash to start buying.
Why I personally tend to believe that BTC will have a deep correction.
1. BTC has increased five times from its lowest point to 7.4
27,400 breakthroughs failed more than once, and the trend line slope changed
3. The market, including YouTubers, are too bullish
4. The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in the second half of the year, strengthening market optimism
The cryptocurrency market is essentially a hunting ground for big capital to raise leeks. Small capital can only play by the rules set by big capital. There is no so-called value here, including BTC. Grayscale, BlackRock, etc. can easily raise the price of BTC to 10 million US dollars or 1 cent if they trade on the exchange, but these big capitals have reached a consensus that all transactions are over-the-counter. All we can do is follow the trend and play by their rules. The market can only have a new turnaround under despair and fear, but the market is probabilistic after all, and anyone can make mistakes.
In the second half of the year, if BTC forms a weekly M top, it is very likely to fall back to the 4.2 dense area, followed by a long adjustment. BTC will not have a clear trend direction until one or two months after the Fed officially cuts interest rates. During this period, we can only build positions in batches. Don't wait until 4.2 to build positions. A pullback may not happen.
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